Just a quick comment on Seth Godin’s post today “Welcome to the frustration decade (and the decade of change)”:
I wholeheartedly agree with Seth’s assertion that the maturation of the first internet generation has incredible significance as a dominant force in shaping the coming decade. I like to think that this will accelerate the pace of innovation and adoption of new technologies in HCI. For example, why has it taken so long for the touch-screen to make it to consumer products (not just in ATMs and kiosks) – to me that’s the unspoken achievement behind the wild success of the iPhone: it brought touch-based interfaces mainstream. How will that, along with other HCI innovations, change not only our interactions with systems but also the design of the systems themselves? (And in asking this, I mean a cybernetic view of a system in that includes the functions and processes both technical and social – I touch on this ever so slightly in my earlier post, here.) Granted this success is as much about the technology that made the UI so popular. The tech savviness of the internet generation together with the advances of technology promises to be a powerful force of change, innovation and growth.
While my personal thinking about this topic has been all over the map, I recently gained a small bit of clarity while reading a post by Viplav Baxi’s titled “Social Networking – the last innovation wave.”
I see the social networks of the web 2.0 world to be a natural evolution of the promise of the internet since it’s invention as a way for scientists to share their research (insofar as we use “the internet” interchangably with “the world wide web” in today’s lexicon.) The argument that the web has been social since it’s beginning (not just recently with the rise in popularity of “social media” as a convenient label) has been a point that I’ve made throughout 2009 in many of my conversations with Robert Stanke, Jeff Pesek, Tony Vitali, and many more, some of which I wrote about in my earlier post “What I think I learned in 2009 about social media.”
Certainly there have been innumerous advances in computing power, speed, bandwidth, etc that have changed since the birth of the world wide web in 1990 but fundamentally the underlying principles are the same. The most significant transformation can be boiled down to the evolution of Human Computer Interfaces (HCI) themselves as an abstraction that is meant to gloss over debates about the details of various technological advances, not diminish them. Combine the advances of ubiquitous computing to micro computing to wired and wireless networks everywhere with the maturation of the www generation (individuals born since 1990 when the WWW was invented) and it’s hard to imagine that innovation ends with the social networks of the modern internet age. To make my point a little clearer, think of how significant the change from a text-based to a point-and-click windows-based paradigm has been on the evolution and utilization of technology today. Granted, there were also incredible advances in computing power (faster, smaller, and cheaper.)
Now think about transformations that may result from the popularization of other modes of HCI. For example voice driven UIs and touch-screens that are already increasingly in use today. And then imagine how transformative gesture-based UI’s will be when they move from the lab to the mainstream. And it’s fun to imagine what will be next. Emotive interfaces? Or thought-based interfaces like those being developed for amputees learning to control prosthetic limbs with their thoughts. And put this all together in virtual worlds / augmented realities – worlds in which point-and-click seems so out of place. What happens when our experience with these virtual worlds are no longer constrained by a 20th century construct like point-and-click? This all sounds so Gibsonian, a la Neuromancer, but it’s truly more fact than fiction at the begining of 2010, than it was in 1984, before the world wide web was even invented!
There’s so much more I want to explore here on this topic, but all I can do is make note of it at this time:
-what will it mean when we reconnect the mind-hand correlation with how we interect in social web (virtual or not) and not filtered by intermediary devices souch as a mouse or a stylus. This is not something a quick observational test could reveal, but it is really an exploration of transformations of systems over time intereacting with other systems, a la cybernetics and sociocybernetics.
-if/when these virtual reality spaces go mainstream with the evolution of computing power and HCI, how will virtual economies arise and overlap with “real world” economies?
-what will be the interplay between the evolution of these new interfaces and how we communicate not just with other people but also with AI enhanced machines – and how will our understanding and implementation of AI change. There’s certainly room for a lot of expirimentation and research! Twitter seems like an excellent sandbox for this experimentation by the way. Plenty of new data available daily for training some sort of genetic programming engine.
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