The votes have been counted and the latest poll is ready. Here are the notes:
Happy Thanksgiving! Here's the latest Top 25.
Notes:
Notes:
There is currently a message board rumor floating around that Melsahn Basabe passed the basketball after receiving a pass in the paint. I was unable to witness this since the basketball game is being televised on an Internet pay-per-view channel so I can't yet confirm.
The Hawkeye men's basketball team is playing its second game of the season tonight against North Carolina A&T. The rumored pass from Basabe came in the early minutes of the game. Currently the Hawks lead 30-16 with 7:00 mins to go, still in the first half.
As for now I'll label this a developing story and update this post if I can get video confirmation.
Friday, I mentioned that the game day primer would be my last link post here. I've been offered the opportunity to write "It's Not Plagiarism If You Link To It" posts on Black Heart Gold Pants starting tomorrow. It's a great opportunity to write posts for a larger audience and participate in discussion at a place I believe is the best on the web for Hawkeye talk.
I'll still operate this blog but with less posting frequency. I have the Top 25 I want to see through and other dumb ideas I'll turn into a post. If you're a regular reader here thanks for that. I hope you make your way over, if you aren't already, to the BHGP.
My Google Reader is full. So, for your benefit, I'm going to unload it here, both basketball and football news in one post. This will be my last link post on plannedsickdays, I'll have more about that later. Consider this a Michigan at Iowa game day primer combined with hoops signing day news/game day primer. Ready? Okay.
One note, Saturday's game with Michigan State is a "blackout" game for the fans. So there's that. I won't have a lot of comments or opinions here, just links. I, like many people, have been consumed by the Penn State story.
General football news:
Podcast: ‘On Iowa’ breaks down defensive surge against Michigan
Can you believe it is Iowa football's home finale this weekend? When the Hawkeyes take on Michigan State it will be the final time in uniform on the field for 18 Hawkeye seniors. Kirk Ferentz discussed the final game for his seniors at Tuesday's press conference. Here is what he had to say:
Every senior class seems to have its own kind of personality or its unique story. What's this year's senior class' story?
COACH FERENTZ: I don't know if we have a story yet. It's kind of weird because we still have three games going into senior day. Usually you only have one left, so we'd be a little further down the road. But this group is they've been fun to work with certainly, and it's a mixed bag. You've got guys like Mike Daniels, Tyler Nielsen, Zusevics, Gettis that have played here the last couple years and other guys like Nardo or Bernstine that have jumped in there late, so it's kind of a mixed bag of guys. But they're really a good group, and it's not the biggest class that we've had certainly, but their attitude has really been good, and they've been really good to work with since January.
Dude!?!
Here we go
The link to the Spreadsheet (who voted for whom).
Notes:
If you have a subscription to the BTN online stream or stole it you got a first look at the Iowa Men's basketball team. I didn't get to see it firsthand and tried to follow on the radio. Note: tried. The Hawks won by 20 and the Gazette has a recap.
I put it to my Twitter pals to give a rundown of what they saw in person. Here's their scoop:
RT @claymcevoy: Gatens will benefit greatly by having a couple other guys who can shoot....MG will have a solid senior year
RT @claymcevoy: Marble still can't shoot, if Cartwright gets hurt were screwed
RT @claymcevoy: people talking up May, but he looked same to me -- spotty shooter, not great instincts, not comfy in his own skin
RT @claymcevoy: Basabe had bad game but I will chalk it up as off day -- overall bigs rebounding, defense and fouls was pretty poor
RT @hawkaholic05: Quite impressed with AW (Aaron White). Great outside shot, blocked a few shots, can play a lot of positions. Lost his man on D a few..
RT @hawkaholic05: times though. We REALLY can't afford to have BC hurt or in foul trouble. Off lacked rhythm when he sat with 2 coils in 1st
RT @MJ_for_IA: Josh Oglesby has the most beautiful looking jump shot I have ever seen. Just so pure and effortless.
RT @hawkaholic05: May was playing with great confidence, much better than end of last year. Missed 2 highlight reel dunks, 1 an oop from BC
RT @hawkaholic05: Could also be that they played at least 11 diff lineups. Seeing what works in preseason
RT @jrlinder22: Besides create, Oglesby does everything pretty well. Surprisingly good defense even, wish we would've seen more of him.
RT @Yabbs: Watched online: Basabe was very meh, Archie made me wish Brommer was healthy. White looked good. Solid perimeter shooting.
RT @Yabbs: Solid perimeter shooting by all, that should say. Also, McCabe looked a lot better than anything I saw last year.
RT @hawkaholic05: Last thing, Gatens looked good going to the hole and finishing. Hopefully he can do this against better teams too
RT @tonysroe: May played a great floor game, filled the stat sheet. Basabe did nothing. Archie was bad in 1st, respectable in 2nd.
RT @tonysroe: White is a welcome addition - stretches defenses & great length. Defensive rotations poor in man; looked better in zone.
RT @tonysroe: Gave up 10 offensive boards in 1st - not good. Olaseni only played 5 minutes, which surprised. Need him to contribute.
RT @jrlinder22: I think the thing most obviously taken away was that the depth is legitimately on a different level than years past.
RT @claymcevoy: liked what I saw from all Freshman, White will clearly make the most impact
Some conflicting opinions there. Some like Eric May, others didn't. It sounds like Basabe wasn't focused and Aaron White will be a contributor. A big thanks to those guys for the info, make sure to give them a follow to talk Hawkeye hoops.
Another Twitter pal that has an in-depth commentary is Hawkeye Nation's Storminspank. Justin has a complete breakdown of Iowa's good and bad plus player evaluations.
What's with Basabe? He told the Cedar Rapids Gazette, "“I am disappointed because I expected a lot out of myself.” McCaffery noted that a couple of early fouls may have been the problem.
Finally, some other hoops related links:
Mission accomplished for Iowa men
Hawkeyes handle Bearcats in exhibition
The pressing Hawkeyes? Coming to an arena near you
High expectations for Iowa basketball freshmen
2011-12 Big Ten men’s basketball previews: Iowa
Iowa Coach Fran McCaffery on recruiting, Brommer’s timeline and Oglesby’s shooting
Iowa’s Devyn Marble says he’s fine after concussion
A word returns to Iowa hoops: Expectations
2011 Iowa Basketball Preview: Shooting Guard
Iowa Basketball — Know Your Tomato Cans: Chicago State
There will be a combination of links today. Both Michigan stories and some looking ahead to Saturday's showdown with Michigan State. Unlike last week it was easy to open the Google Reader but also unlike last week there is non Iowa related story that has stole some of my attention. So, bullet style, here we go:
First, a story no one last week would thought they'd read. Well, not quite no one, there were a few Hawk fans holding on to hope.
Even with loss Saturday, Iowa could claim Legends title
How is that possible? Beating Michigan made it happen (Northwestern beating Nebraska helped too).
Hawks hold on to beat No. 13 Michigan, 24-16
Photos: Iowa vs. Michigan
Iowa-Michigan post-game notes
VIDEO: Kirk Ferentz postgame, Michigan-Iowa
The Takeaway: Michigan
The win over Michigan came with a price.
Iowa loses DT Dominic Alvis to torn ACL
Today, it was reported via Twitter that Michigan coach Brady Hoke will contact the Big Ten offices. Here's his post game PC with notes on the final plays.
Michigan rues lost opportunities (w/video)
Post game stuff from Ferentz and the players:
Saturday video — ‘Top of the world . . . bottom of the pit’
Kirk Ferentz post-game interview transcript
11/5/2011: Iowa 24, Michigan 16 (Links)
And now how about Michigan State?
Big game, not much (or anything) else to say
Depth chart out for Michigan State game
MSU cuts off player access before Iowa trip
Spartans head to Iowa with a hunger
Stat Pak: Kinnick to the max
One other note, the game at Purdue November 19th will kickoff at 11:00 am. Also, there was a basketball game and I have plenty of links in the Reader about that. I'll try to have a hoops post out tomorrow.
Another home game in Iowa City means another Sunday of laughing at police arrest information. Thanks to Iowa's Department of Public Safety we can do just that. Here are the stats from tomorrow's game:
Anderson, Blain Christopher, 29 of Midland, MI for Public Intox at Kinnick at 1110 hours. Anderson was attempting to enter Kinnick; he was very unsteady on his feet & had a strong odor of alcohol coming from his breath. Anderson admitted drinking & blew .321 PBT.
Jurca, John Michael, 27 of Coralville, IA for Public Intox & Public Urination at Kinnick at 1214 hours. Jurca was observed urinating in the north concourse. Jurca had unstable balance & admitted drinking. Jurca had a thermos of vodka on his person & admitted drinking. Jurca blew .109 PBT.
Sorbe, Nicolas Mark, 26 of Cedar Falls, IA for Trespass at Kinnick at 1422 hours. Sorbe rushed the field. Sorbe was not authorized to be on the field. Sorbe said it was a “big win” and he had rushed the field before.Blain's .321 was the big winner on the day. For the rest of the records click the link above. Until next week...
That's the rumor from @Hawkize via Twitter.
Here's a pic from @hawkize:
That's right, Chris Steinbach, of the Muscatine Journal, writes that "All good things come to an end." Chris asks "Fire Ferentz?" I say asks because he used the ever useful question mark. Chris also uses hard hitting supporting arguments like "And no one should be willing to accept a 5-7 record when Coach Kirk Ferentz is paid $3.5 million annually." He did include his belief that "Ferentz seems like a good guy and he has been a good coach" but concludes again with the salary argument. I'm not a regular reader of the Muscatine Journal but hard hitting stuff like this from Chris Steinbach might just earn them a bookmark.
Marc Morehouse, of the Cedar Rapids Gazette, has the breakdown from Kirk Ferentz's weekly call-in show from Carlos O'Kelly's. Sounds like we'll see freshman running back Mi'Kail McCall this week. Also, wide receiver Keenan Davis should be back in action after suffering an ankle sprain against Indiana.
Raise your hand if you were surprised to see Iowa was only a four point underdog in Saturday's match-up with Michigan. Ryan Suchomel, of Hawk Central, was too, in fact he wrote about it.
Here are some more links you should give a read:
‘The cavalry isn’t coming’
Jordan Bernstine proves his doubters were wrong
Hawks need all of their weapons for Wolverines
Iowa special teams gains, but not disaster-proof
11/1/2011: Iowa football notebook
Harty: Is Ferentz’s way still working?
Ferentz says he missed the call
Barta: ‘Ferentz the best coach for Iowa’
Home is where the heart is for Hawkeyes
Erratic Iowa sends mixed messages to fans
Tuesday video — ‘Put that on me’
Tuesday video — White’s view of onside kick
Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz shoots down Mike Stoops rumor
Transcript: Kirk Ferentz Tuesday press conference
Iowa Football to Observe Veteran's Day
Introducing BHGP Bingo For Iowa Football
Big D-lineman to visit Iowa this weekend
Podcast: ‘On Iowa’ breaks down Michigan-Iowa
The Top Ten Reasons Why Iowa Will Lose To Michigan!
Video: Previewing Michigan at Iowa
Behind the Numbers: Week 10 Iowa vs Michigan
11/3/2011: Talkin’ Hawks podcast (Iowa vs. Michigan)
Dwight Named Honorary Captain
Coach Ferentz Tuesday Press Conference Transcript
The Quickest Slant — No Hawkeye the Lab
McNutt named finalist for award
Statistical In-Ferentz, Week 9: Stuck Between Stations
Coker impresses with bruising runs
Guthrie Makes Ray Guy Watch List
Whew, that's a lot of links. Sorry for the info overload but it took me a few days to be able to open the Google Reader again (thanks Minnesota). But I'm not done. Above is from Iowa media, now here is what the Michigan media is saying:
Michigan football still 'in transition,' Brady Hoke says
ESPN analyst Mark Schlabach picks Iowa over Michigan
Brady Hoke unconcerned about latest player departure
Michigan Football Report: Wolverines Prepare for Physical Iowa Team
Brady Hoke: Wolverines' Jordan Kovacs expected to play Saturday
Upon Further Review 2011: Defense vs Purdue
Opponent Watch: Week 9
Yards, Points, and Predictions: Iowa
Week 8 Trend Report
Ken Pomeroy, creator of kenpom.com, has released his computer simulated predictions for the upcoming basketball season. The Hawkeyes are predicted to finish 17-14 on the year and are #61 in his college basketball ratings. Most of the predicted wins come in Iowa's non conference schedule. Pomeroy's computer has Iowa winning five Big Ten games.
Ken Pomeroy uses tempo based statistics to determine the outcome of individual games. His website boasts that his ratings are an "advanced analysis of college basketball."
Penn State and Iowa are the lowest rated Big Ten teams in these predicted ratings (Penn State is rated #114). Some in-state rival ratings; UNI is #66, Iowa State is #123 and Drake #131. Kentucky, Ohio State, North Carolina, Duke and Syracuse round out his Top 5.
Other Hawkeye related news/links:
2011 Iowa Basketball Preview: Small Forward
Going 11 Deep (Insert Joke Here)
New Aura, New Attitude
Marble feels good about his health and game
Olaseni Adjusts to Life as a Hawkeye
2011 Iowa Basketball Preview: Power Forward
Iowa vs. Northwest Missouri State (Exhibition) Game Notes, starting lineup
2011 Iowa Basketball Preview: Center
This week I did a little Q&A exchange with Mike Weaver over at MGoFootball.com, a Michigan football blog. Mike had several questions about the Hawkeyes and I did my best to provide my opinions. The questions were about Iowa's performance at Minnesota (uggh), Marcus Coker, the defense, and Kirk Ferentz. Give the link above a look and tell me what you think.
In return Mike agreed to answer a few questions I threw back his way. I learned a little bit the Hawkeyes' opponent this Saturday and I hope you do too.
Q1. What’s with the two quarterback system we’ve seen the last few weeks? Can you break down why Hoke has gone with this and what each QB does differently?
Well first it was cool, then it didn’t work so well in the loss to Michigan State, then it seemed like it was happening too much and any rhythm Denard Robinson had as QB was out the window.
The idea is to put Gardner under center or in the gun and use Robinson as the decoy to get the defense flowing in his direction as he is sent in motion. So, many of the sets are simply designed to create misdirection plays and get Michigan’s backs out in space. Denard has lined up in the backfield, in the slot, and out wide.
When you see Gardner in the game – he will handoff/pitch first, pass second (misdirection screen or rollout), and run himself third. Devin Gardner typically hits his halfback on a pitch going the other way after faking the hand off to Robinson. He’s really had a few horrible throws; his only toss vs. Purdue was a bad, bad Interception. He also has this terrible, once comical habit (20+ yard loss vs. MSU) of reversing field as he is being pursued, which tends to lose many yards at once. Gardner will be a good QB, but man he looks green out there at times.
We’ve seen a throwback from Gardner to Robinson that was unsuccessful, other than that, Denard has not been a receiving target or even a threat for that matter when Gardner is in the gun or under center.
Why is Borges / Hoke doing this? Hoke eluded to Gardner being somewhat of a more accurate passer in the aftermath of the Michigan State loss that’s now been coined the “trash tornado” by those over at mgoblog. So maybe that’s why were seeing as much Gardner as we are at this point in the season. On the other hand, Borges is an admitted X and O junkie and he likes to experiment. By the end of the season – there is a lot for a D coordinator to prepare for.
It’s tough to get a read on new coordinators even eight games in to the season. I said this in a post earlier this week – sometimes I’m not sure whether I want to throw my phone against the wall or thank Al Borges for some of his play calls. The strange ones seem to be commonplace.
It’s not like the two QB thing hasn’t worked, but it seems like it’s too big a part of the offense at this point.
Q2. What has been the greatest impact defensive coordinator Greg Mattison has made with the Michigan defense?
First, Mattison has raised the expectations using Michigan’s long tradition of good-to-great defenses as benchmarks. In many pressers, Mattison continues to talk about expectations by position and the intense focus on playing with ‘great technique and great effort’.
To me, the greatest impact is coaching his defense to play smart football utilizing fundamental defensive principles that you learn in grade school – keep the ball inside of you, keep the ball in front of you, and pursue to the ball at all times. Michigan’s D of the past three seasons had no idea what was going on and certainly didn’t adhere to those fundamentals. Michigan’s D has created several fumbles simply from backside or late-play pursuit.
A secondary impact is consistency in the messages from the coaches. In past seasons, you had all kinds of position changes, scheme changes (changes on terrible schemes to begin with), etc. Now, it’s like “Oh WOW that’s coaching!”, because you hear the same consistent message coming from the coaching staff and it’s being translated into some consistent play on the field.
Q3. Give me your assessment of Coach Brady Hoke’s first season as Michigan’s coach.
When Hoke was hired, I cringed. I WTF’d. I couldn’t believe Michigan didn’t get a bigger name than Brady Hoke. At the time, Hoke was a guy with a good Michigan background that had a .500 record as a head coach mostly in the MAC. So it wasn’t a glamorous hire.
As the month’s rolled on – Hoke began to show up rivals Ohio State and Michigan State in the local recruiting battles. Michigan has 10 recruits from Ohio and 7 from Michigan – with a nationally ranked 2nd class for ’12 right now. So he picked up momentum fast with the Michigan fan base. He said all right “Michigan Man” words in his press conferences talking toughness, accountability to your teammates, etc...
Hoke’s first season has been a huge success. Every Michigan fan would have signed up for where Michigan is right now with recruiting and a 7-1 record. He brought in tenured and legit coaching staff – which was RichRod’s downfall in part.
Similar to what you said, no matter what team loses people are going to call for their coaches’ heads – so when losses occur, fans lose sight of everything but the fresh loss. Happens every time.
Q4. The same question you asked me, give me the Michigan football team’s strengths and weaknesses.
This is not an easy question to answer because each week seems so vastly different. On offense, Michigan’s O line was to be the strength coming into the season, but got manhandled in East Lansing against Sparty. At this point, Michigan struggles on offense when the offensive line isn’t coming through and when Michigan’s quarterbacks have a turnover-give-a-way (bank on Iowa having at least one or two easy picks on regrettable throws from either Robinson or Gardner).
On defense, Michigan’s D line was to be a strength as well, but seemed to struggle for the first half of the season. At this point, the D line seems to have picked up their play and the concern moves to the back seven. Michigan’s biggest playmaker in the secondary is Jordan Kovacs – and he didn’t play last week due to a knee injury and looks to be questionable at best this week. The starting linebacking corp is made up of a true freshman, Desmond Morgan, and a redshirt freshman, Jake Ryan. So as Michigan begins to face bigger teams that like to pound the ball – I have some worry in regards to how they will hold up.
Nevertheless, Michigan’s defense has come up with a lot of big plays, whereas the offense has struggled for long stretches in a few games.
Q5. Finally, a prediction if you would please.
I’d like to echo an assured sentiment around Iowa after last weekend - damn these B1G road games! I think this game will be more of a struggle for Michigan than Michigan fans generally think. Iowa seems to play so much better at home – see the Michigan State thumping last year and that Iowa home record of 59-12 that I keep hearing (last 10 years maybe?).
However, I expect a Michigan victory on the merits of more big plays created by the defense and relative success with a clock-controlling offense. As you said, this is Iowa’s worst performing defense in a decade.
I’m going to go with Michigan 30 – Iowa 23.
Now that the Top 25 polls have been counted it's time to take a look ahead to the weekend and this week's games that will matter the most. You can view this week's Top 25 here, now on to the games:
All games are Saturday, November 5, 2011
11:00 AM CST (ESPN)
#15 Michigan at Iowa
Spread: Michigan -4
Iowa is coming off yet another road loss, this time to lowly Minnesota. The Wolverines bounced back after the loss to Michigan State by defeating Purdue last week. The Wolverines are still in the hunt for the Legends Division crown. The Hawkeyes are 5-0 at home this season and still have an outside shot at getting to Indianapolis.
11:00 AM CST (FX)
Texas Tech at #24 Texas
Spread: Texas -14
After defeating then ranked #3 Oklahoma, Texas Tech laid a big egg at home against Iowa State. The Red Raiders were rewarded for the upset at OU with a spot in the Top 25 but had that quickly changed after the poor performance last week. Texas had a tune-up last week against Kansas and are poised to rise up the Top 25 for the second time this year.
2:30 PM CST
Texas A&M at #8 Oklahoma
Spread: Oklahoma -13.5
It's been the season of blown leads for the Aggies. Now they head to Norman to face an Oklahoma team that still controls their own destiny. The Sooners still have Oklahoma State on the schedule at the end of the season and can win the Big 12 with a victory over the Cowboys. Texas A&M was an early sleeper pick for the Big 12 title in the preseason. Now they can only hope to play spoiler to Oklahoma's slim BCS Championship dreams.
6:00 PM CST (ESPNU)
#23 Cincinnat at Pittsburgh
Spread: Cincinnati -3
Cincinnati is sitting at 6-1 but but hasn't got much respect from pollsters. West Virginia fell out of the Top 25 after a loss to Syracuse but are back and leaped ahead of fellow Big East member Cincinnati. The Bearcats have a shot at winning the Big East and becoming the conference's lone BCS representative. They have to win on the road at Pittsburgh first. The Panthers will have to figure out a way to win without star running back Ray Graham.
6:15 PM CST (ESPN)
#10 South Carolina at #7 Arkansas
Spread: Arkansas -5
South Carolina has had issues at quarterback with the mid season dismissal of senior Stephen Garcia. The Gamecock offense also lost star running back Marcus Lattimore to injury. But, the Gamecocks are hanging around the Top 10 and in a fight with Georgia for the SEC East division crown. Arkansas has only the one loss to Alabama on their record and with a win over South Carolina will still only be one game behind the winner of the LSU/Alabama match-up. The Razorbacks have yet to play LSU so there's still a chance for Arkansas to win the SEC West.
7:00 PM CST
#17 Kansas State at #4 Oklahoma State
Spread: Okie State -21
Kansas State will look to rebound after getting demolished by Oklahoma last week. After rising to #8 in the poll they are in jeopardy of exiting with two straight losses. Oklahoma State wants to keep the train rolling and keep on the tracks for a BCS Championship birth. Vegas loves the Cowboys at home. They are a three touchdown favorite.
7:00 PM CST (CBS)
#1 LSU at #2 Alabama
Spread: Bama -4
It's the game many people have had marked on their calendar since the preseason. Both teams had a bye week to prepare for what many pundits are calling a national championship game in the regular season. The winner of this showdown will be in the driver's seat in the SEC West and perhaps the BCS Championship game. The Crimson Tide get the home field nod from Vegas here but don't count out the Tigers. CBS moved the start time for this game to prime time and it's sure to not disappoint.
The votes have been counted. Here is the link to the spreadsheet to see for yourself. If you would like to see the previous weeks you can view the PSD Top 25 tab above or click here.
And here are the bullets:
Originally I wanted to take a look at the last two games to see if Hawkeye quarterback James Vandenberg was "tipping his pitches." That's a baseball term and if you're not familiar it means that he's tipping the defense on what he's going to do after the snap. After thinking about it, I don't think that's the case. I do think that Vandenberg has some tendencies and defensive coordinators are gambling with the blitz when they think they have him figured out.
I made an observation when Iowa took on Indiana back on October 22nd. When Iowa was in a passing situation and in the shotgun formation, Vandenberg was using a hard count and getting the Indiana linebackers to flinch. That flinch was his way of getting those linebackers, or sometimes secondary, to show their cards. He would then step back after recognizing that the flinch was telling him where the blitz was coming from and either allow the offensive line to make their calls or signal a hot route to the outside wide receivers. It was smart and shows his level of maturity in his first year as Iowa's starting quarterback.
I don't think I was the only one to notice this little trick. I think the Minnesota coaching staff noticed it too. And to their credit, I believe they coached their players to purposely make movements (flinch) when Vandenberg barked out his hard count. The linebackers purposely jump towards the line and when James thought he was calling their move they'd blitz from the opposite linebacker position. Tricky, tricky, but it's little things that go on each and every play that can make the difference between a successful pass play and an unsuccessful one. That is the game within the game.
I think there may be another tendency that opposing coaches are picking up on too. Now I need a little help from you all in determining if my theory is true. I searched and searched for a video clip of Indiana's sack from the backside but couldn't find it. The reason I'd like to see it? To see if the blitzing defender came from the opposite of McNutt's side.
See, my theory is that opposing defenses have figured out that in third down situations, where Iowa has to pass, they know that Vandenberg will look only to McNutt's side. Watching the game it's hard to tell that it's McNutt that James is looking for but you see that he never really scans 100% of the field and the backside blitz spelled disaster for the Iowa offense. There was another breakdown that led to the Minnesota sack. A miscommunication along the offensive line allowed their safety to have a free run at JV. But, he never saw him coming, not at the line or after the snap. Was he zoned in on McNutt's half of the field?
Like I said, I'd like to see a replay of the sack that came from the backside against Indiana. I want to see if McNutt was the wideout to the opposite side of the blitzing defensive back there too. If my theory is true it's a fixable tendency. He's still learning and maturing as a quarterback and will need to learn to scan the field. It's something he can see on film and work on in time.
The defenses Iowa will face the next four weeks will blitz Iowa a lot. If they've seen the film there's no doubt we can expect the backside blitz attacking Iowa on third down and other obvious passing situations. Getting Keenan Davis back on the field will help. He was missing against Minnesota and perhaps Vandenberg felt that McNutt was his only reliable option.
I'm not going to get into Iowa's mistakes against Minnesota. The effort, the onside kick, the forfeited possession at the end of the first half, or the offensive play calling at the end of the game. That's been discussed all over the web. As useless as it may seem, and perhaps as a form of therapy, I wanted to look for answers.
Here's the two-deeps for this week's game with Michigan, courtesy of HawkeyeDrive.com.
OFFENSE:
WR McNutt, Staggs
LT Reiff, Donnal
LG Tobin, Scherff
C Ferentz, Bofelli
RG Gettis, Orne
RT Zusevics, Van Sloten
TE Derby, Herman/ Fiedorowicz
QB Vandenberg, Wienke
WR Davis, Martin-Manley
RB Coker, White
FB Rogers, Gimm
DEFENSE:
DE Alvis, Daniel
DT Nardo, Bigach
DT Daniels, Gaglione
DE Binns, Forgy
OLB Kirksey, Donatell
MLB Nielsen, Alston
WLB Morris, Hitchens
LCB Prater, Lowery
SS Bernstine, Sleeper
FS Miller, Swanson
RCB Hyde, Castillo
Now, this season more than any other, has proven that the Hawkeye two-deeps don't always mean a lot. They serve a purpose but they aren't actually a true guideline for who will be the first person off the bench. As we've seen many times at the running back position.
What really sticks out to me is the number of walk-ons listed here. Staggs, Tobin, Zach Derby, White, Nardo, Donatell, and Sleeper. They all play too. The name isn't on the two-deeps as a reward. That's seven, nine if you count Krieter the long snapper and Guthrie the punter. But that's a common practice for those positions.
I don't want to bag on walk-ons. They are an important part of your football team. Hell, I write about them, I'm a big fan of the walk-on story. Iowa's ability to develop walk-on players speaks for itself. Some of those guys get to the NFL and get paid. But seven in a single season? That's a problem.
My beef, at least it was, has been with recruiting and the size of classes. I've felt that the coaching staff is doing a poor job of calculating an attrition rate into their class sizes and not handing out enough scholarships on a year-to-year basis.
There is also a quality versus quantity discussion that stems from that. Obviously, you wouldn't have success handing out scholarships to marginal prospects just to fill numbers.
Iowa had a large senior class last year and many of those seniors were either drafted or signed a free agent contract in the NFL. We've been reminded of that a few times by the Ferentz during press conferences this Fall.
Iowa signed 25 players last winter so they addressed my issue here with numbers. The actual talent level of the class is still a few years from being realized. It's also been knocked down to 23 with Rodney Coe not qualifying and John Raymon heading back home.
Having players getting drafted is great for the program. I imagine it helps a great deal on the recruiting trail. But, it's the responsibility of the coaching staff to ensure that when those seniors are gone there is a fresh body there to replace them. I think it's a bit much to expect that "next man-in" to be of NFL talent but I also think it's reasonable to expect a capable player. One capable of making a tackle for a loss or the occasional sack. Mike Daniels is currently the only defensive lineman listed among the Big Ten's top 20 in both tackles for a loss and sacks (6 TFL, 3.5 sacks).
That leads me to these two articles from Black Heart Gold Pants.
In March, Patrick Vint wrote On Redshirts, Attrition, and The Great Iowa Hawkeye Talent Drain. It's a piece written in response to an article on Oversigning.com comparing numbers of Iowa's recruiting classes to the size of classes in the SEC, a conference where schools are signing up to 30 scholarship players per recruiting year, regardless of need.
Vint breaks down the math and finds that with attrition, Iowa is still arriving at the 85 scholarship limit and that's with an average of signing 22 players per year. The problem, according to Vint, isn't how many players are leaving but that it's the talented players that are going elsewhere.
After reviewing the math I realized my initial belief that the staff wasn't handing out enough scholarships is flawed. Unless you want players pushed out the door at the end of the year like they do at some places down south.
Following the loss at Iowa State RossWB, also at Black Heart Gold Pants, wrote this piece The Missing: How Recent Recruiting And Retention (Or Lack Thereof) Is Hurting Iowa Football. Ross went on to break down the attrition of Iowa's 2007-2010 recruiting classes, highlighting the players that have left the program. I'll save you the repetition of listing those players here, click the link and see for yourself.
Two articles, two similar arguments, both with strong support. One, you have attrition at key positions, the other says the overall strength of the recruiting class may be the issue. Here's the telling piece of information to me.
"In the 2007-2010 recruiting classes, Iowa lost eight (!) running backs (including fullbacks), six defensive linemen, four linebackers, and six defensive backs."
If you are familiar with these link posts you know I collect various reports and stories from the web about the weekend's game. Well, today I'm linking only one. It's an open letter from Bama Hawkeye over at Off Tackle Empire. Give it a read, tell me what you think.
An Open Letter to Kirk Ferentz - Do you want to be Joe Paterno or Phillip Fulmer?
Here's a snippet:
"Dear Coach Ferentz,
I want you to know that I remember. I was in Iowa City in 1999. I remember just how bad that team was. I remember just how little talent you had on the field.
I remember how exciting the second half of 2000 was, as the corner was turned. I remember the excitement of 2001's continuation. I vividly remember the magic of 2002. I'll never forget being in the Metrodome, watching you being carried off the field. I remember the great moments of 2003. I remember the joy of Penn State and Wisconsin in 2004. I'll never forget the amazing end to the Capital One Bowl against LSU.
No, I haven't forgotten about the disappointment of 2005-7, either. But, I remember the 2008 win over Penn State and the excitement that continued through the end of the season. I'll always remember the magic of 2009. Two blocked kicks to beat Northern Iowa. The blocked punt in Happy Valley. Seven got six. The Orange Bowl.
I want you to know that I remember all of that, so that it can't be said that I'm ungrateful or that I'm living with a short memory. I am grateful. I do remember. It's because I remember that I wanted to take a moment of your time. You see Coach, something has to change."
Okay, post Minnesota day one. I want to write about that disaster, I do. I will, just not today.
How about this? Let's take a look at next year's roster and try to predict the two-deeps. Sure, it's a long ways away and there will be a lot of changes between here-and-there but why not try to find something to hang our hat on? Or not...
QB- James Vandenberg / John Wienke
Certainly you'd like to see Jake Rudock break into there but don't count on it. Jake might be the QB off the bench in a blowout but the two-deeps given to the media will include both seniors.
RB - Marcus Coker / Mika'il McCall
McCall is Iowa's number two guy right now, when healthy. Does senior Jason White get the number two spot? If he does you have to assume there will be questions. White realistically should be Iowa's fourth or fifth option off the bench. Bullock was back with the WR's Saturday and Canzeri might add some weight to get a shot. Then there's always the AIRBHG to contend with.
SE (WR) - Don Shumpert / Steven Staggs
Neither of these two have shown anything that indicates they will be able to fill departed senior Marvin McNutt's shoes. Shumpert began the year on the kickoff team and was consistently blown up trying to get through blocks. He needs some time at the training table to pack on some muscle. Staggs, meh. This could be a spot for Kevonte Martin-Manley or Marcus Grant/Jacob Hillyer to break into the lineup.
WR - Keenan Davis / Kevonte Martin-Manley
I have to think one of these two moves to the other starting position. By experience and previous playing time these are your two best options at the WR position. Jordan Cotton or one of the two current freshman previously listed could find their name here too.
FB - Brad Rogers / Jonathan Gimm
Thankfully Rogers has been able to return to action and continue his playing career. He's still showing signs of the long lay off but after a year to get his conditioning back he'll be a nice option for the Hawks. Gimm will be a senior and get the nod but sophomore Mark Weisman could be in the mix too.
TE - Zach Derby / CJ Fiedorowicz
Derby is the current starter and there's no reason to believe he loses that spot now. If CJ can have a big Spring he may earn the trust of the coaches and get the nod. They'll both play in Iowa's two TE sets. Ray Hamilton got his feet wet but has since disappeared this season. Both he and Henry Krieger-Coble will compete for playing time at this position.
LT - Brandon Scherff / Andrew Donnal
Scherff was the first guy in to replace Riley Reiff when he was out for a brief stint against Indiana. For the sake of this two-deep I'll assume takes the NFL money, not matter how high his draft stock is. Donnal may be the future LT but I think he still needs time to develop. Either of these two may end up somewhere else along the line.
LG - Matt Tobin / Jordan Walsh
Tobin has been the starter at LG all season (up until the Minnesota game). He'll enter his senior season as the starter unless Walsh or Austin Blythe beats him out. Walsh could be a center too, perhaps he and Connor Boffeli switch spots here.
C - James Ferentz / Connor Boffeli
Same as 2011. Don't see a change unless Boffeli finds a spot at guard. Drew Clark could slide into the second spot if Bofelli plays G.
RG - Austin Blythe / Dan Heiar
Blythe has made the travel squad this year and Twitter rumors have had him already working with the current second team. It might be a stretch to predict the red shirt freshman gets the opening day start but I'm willing to bet he finds his name there at some point next season. Dan Heiar will have had a year to recover from his injury and will probably not get in the two-deeps the first few games. He will still have a suspension to serve for the OWI that he received after his accident.
RT- Nolan MacMillan \ Brett Van Sloten
These two can easily be reversed. Van Sloten has been the backup at RT for two seasons now. MacMillan may miss the entire year with a sports hernia. His career has been full of injuries but a healthy MacMillan is one of Iowa's best offensive lineman.
DE - Dominic Alvis / Marcus Spears
Spears probably won't get listed within the two-deeps right away but I'd wager he sees the field next year. Spears arrived at Iowa as a LB but was spotted working with the third team DL in Fall camp. If he adds the weight he could anchor Iowa's DL for a few years.
DT - Steve Bigach / Carl Davis
People have been waiting for Carl Davis to break out since his arrival on campus. He brings something we don't see much in Iowa recruiting, size at the DT position. I'm afraid that's all he brings to the table, size. He hasn't shown much ability in the short stints on the field. He still has time to figure it out, let's hope he does before the Hawks kickoff in 2012.
DT - Joe Gaglione / Darian Cooper
Gaglione will get the nod due to his seniority. Hopefully Darian Cooper can play well enough he earns some time inside next season. The other potential guys here are Mike Hardy and Louis Trinca-Pasat. This is a gaping hole and the Hawks need JUCO in a bad way.
DE - Joe Forgy / Louis Trinca-Pasat
Again, Forgy gets the spot due to seniority. Trinca-Pasat is probably still a year away as he needs to get bigger. Maybe current freshman (red shirting) Riley McMinn can break in here somewhere. Like the DT's Iowa needs help here and in a big way.
OLB- Anthony Hitchens / Dakota Getz
These are all just guesses. Getz will be a year away from an ACL injury that cost him his 2011 season. How he recovers will be any one's guess. I could see John Lowdermilk getting in the mix here too. Maybe Dibona/Getz/Lowdermilk. ** I'm using the asterik to note an edit. Originally, I forgot about AJ Derby. I think Derby is an excellent candidate to replace Tyler Nielsen. He's not as quick so he's better suited for covering the tight end. If the Hawks can get that 6th win this year and the bowl prep Derby might be in the two-deeps at OLB next Fall.
MLB - James Morris / Quinton Alston
I'm still not sold on Morris being best suited for MLB but he should only be a red shirt freshman getting mop up time tight now. Let's be real, Morris is a fine player but he really could have used that red shirt season to add the size needed to play MLB in the Big Ten. Alston lost his red shirt this year but has played sparingly.
OLB - Christian Kirksey / Shane Dibona
Kirksey is a pretty decent player for Iowa but like Morris was thrown in the fire without the luxury of adding weight in a red shirt season. Where Dibona and even Poggi end up after they recover from injury is any body's guess. DiBona's Achilles injury is a tough one to fully recover from, just ask Northwestern's Dan Persa.
FS - Tanner Miller / Jack Swanson
Miller has the position on lock down and Swanson will get the two-deep nod because he will be a senior (if he returns).
SS - Collin Sleeper / Nico Law
Sleeper got the start for Iowa on opening day and against Iowa State. After Jordan Bernstine emerged we haven't seen much of him since. Hopefully Law can grasp the playbook and become a leader on the field. He's shined on the kickoff team and proves each week he can be physical at this level.
CB - Micah Hyde / Greg Castillo
If Hyde returns for his senior season he'll get a lot of press and be Iowa's best player on defense. Castillo will enter his senior season as a backup and play some nickle and dime packages. Freshman Torrey Campbell and Jordan Lomax might sneak into the mix here.
CB - BJ Lowery / Jordan Lomax
Iowa gave Lowery some reps this year after he returned from a broken wrist. He replaced Shaun Prater for a series against Indiana and I think the coaches look at Lowery as their third best option at DB. Lomax, like Nico Law, has shined on the kickoff team and could push for playing time in the Hawkeye secondary next fall.
K - Meyer
Lets hope Iowa's verbal commit Connor Kornbrath can put the ball in the end zone on kickoffs. If he can he'll get those duties while Meyer handles field goals and extra points. Kornbrath may step in and be Iowa's punter next year too.
I'm a little reluctant to include verbal commits because they haven't signed anything yet. Kornbrath could still change his mind and let's hope he doesn't. Iowa has a decent DL recruit but so was Darian Cooper and he couldn't break the two-deeps in 2011.
Welp, there it is. A waaaay too early look. We've seen almost all of these guys in action. They'll improve but there still are some question marks and holes to fill. Obviously, the defensive line is the most glaring problem. Iowa has a few months until signing day and we'll see if they try to figure it out.
What do you think, I wrote this to generate discussion. LMK in the comment box or hit me on the Twitter.
#FREEFLOYD!!