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A Brief Look At Derby Entrants' Workouts 4 May 2016 11:17 AM (8 years ago)

Below you will find a collection of tweets and videos (or photos when I couldn't find video) from various sources from around the internet. At a minimum, we have had our eyes on the winner! These are presented in the order of points earned in Derby preps. This page may take a bit to load because of all the video, so stay patient. Enjoy!

This is Gun Runner breezing 4 furlongs in :50.40.https://t.co/oyhnrQdYjw

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) May 2, 2016

This is Nyquist's last work at Keeneland before shipping to Churchill.  I still don't know how I feel about Doug O'Neill's decision not to get the likely favorite a work over the Churchill Downs surface.

— Keeneland Racing (@keenelandracing) April 23, 2016

Exaggerator putting in a "stretching his legs" kind of work.  He's the only horse in the field to post a triple-digit speed figure more than twice.  (He has gone 101+ in each of his last four starts.)

Exaggerator breezes 5 furlong in 1:02.60 this morning at @ChurchillDowns.https://t.co/iM0T2bRGIh

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 30, 2016

Outwork looked like a happy horse during his April 29th work.  And although, many are discounting the Wood Memorial winner, he looks pretty fit and ready.

I'm already partial to Brody's Cause, because of a nephew named Brody, but aside from that, if I had to pick a horse right now to key in exotics, it would be this horse.

Brody's Cause worked 5 furlongs in 1:00.20 under the Twin Spires this morning.https://t.co/6NXZZhaP2d

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) May 1, 2016

Creator put in what looked like a maintenance work, but I like that he was kept to the center of the track.  Hinting at the ride Asmussen might want?

#Creator looking good in morning work @ChurchillDowns! #DerbyDreaming pic.twitter.com/WVCSjNpj2j

— WinStar Farm (@WinStarFarm) April 25, 2016

Tempermental and mysterious Japanese import Lani has had an eventful visit to Churchill thus far...with gate crew rehearsals, and a couple of odd works, the last of which still wound up being the best of 18 that day.

Lani! Chose to work five-eighths after jock invited him to start earlier. Was OK too once he got going. pic.twitter.com/T7qSJiYwZg

— Steve Byk (@Steve_Byk) May 3, 2016

Mor Spirit put in a fine work on May 2: second of 27 on the day.

Bob Baffert was at @ChurchillDowns this morning to watch Mor Spirit breeze 5 furlongs in :59.80.https://t.co/on0w35Zpdf

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 26, 2016

Mohaymen certainly doesn't look comfortable at the beginning of this work, but he settles in and finishes well.  Any horse can have a bad race, and his poor Florida Derby has made many toss this one time Derby future favorite.  The right move?

I was unable to find any video of Danzing Candy's current works, and that is even after I figured out that he has an extra "z" in his name.  I had been searching for Danzig (like the hair metal band).  Still, I have to think his need-the-lead style will hinder him in this race.

Danzing Candy Logs Final Derby Breeze (The Blood-Horse) https://t.co/hzyY59XEUq

— THP (@THPnews) May 1, 2016

I loved last year's winner of the Tamba Bay Derby, Carpe Diem.  I was wrong, but that doesn't prevent me from liking this year's winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, Destin.  He puts in a middling work here off a bullet last time, but he seems a smart, versatile horse.

Check out Destin's workout yesterday morning beneath the Twin Spires in preparation for next week's @KentuckyDerby https://t.co/gdcjtHdVF4

— Eclipse Thoroughbred (@EclipseTBP) April 30, 2016

If you are a fan of works in handicapping, you're likely a fan of SuddenBreakingNews.  Most were raving about his effort on 4/29.  However, there were seven faster efforts that day, and I wonder if he has enough speed.  One thing is for sure though: he is a legitimate closer in a race that will go fast.

TOP WORK of the morning belongs to Suddenbreakingnews, who skims over the surface. A-plus. https://t.co/HngPVtg0bY #KYDerby

— J.J. Hysell (@trifectabox) April 29, 2016

Ken and Sarah Ramsey have yet to win a Derby.  Is Oscar Nominated, the upset winner of the Spiral, the horse to get the Ramseys the garland of roses?

Shagaf moves beautifully over the track, but is he fast enough?

I couldn't find any works video for Whitmore, but I find him intriguing because I believe the pace may suit. Trouble is, he always seems to find trouble, and a 20-horse field is hard to negotiate.

Whitmore #kyderby16 pic.twitter.com/RsuDjN6G8U

— Claire Novak (@BH_CNovak) May 4, 2016

Tom's Ready ran a strong second in the Louisiana Derby, but that race also represents the best speed figure he's ever posted.  He looks sharp here, though: 3rd fastest of 53 horses in this session.

WATCH: Tom's Ready breezed 5 furlongs in 59.40 this morning.@dallasstewart @gmbracinghttps://t.co/cqNoLgv1EY

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 29, 2016

Thank goodness for Steve Byk, without whom we wouldn't have work video of a few of these horses.  My Man Sam looks like he is running in the very early morning.  This work looks middling, but that very well have been trainer Chad Brown's intention.

My Man Sam on outside of Majestic Affair with typically easy C. Brown go in 13, 25.3, 49.3, 1:02 and out in 1:14.4. pic.twitter.com/NMr7dV809r

— Steve Byk (@Steve_Byk) April 29, 2016

Very little in the way of photos and video of Majesto.  This is from the trainer's Twitter account.  If you are looking for a longshot, Majesto figures to be one.  He is running in the Derby just two starts removed from breaking his maiden.

Majesto @ChurchillDowns track pic.twitter.com/AEmUmnkAPN

— Gustavo Jose Delgado (@GustavoJDelgado) April 24, 2016

Trojan Nation is another horse that seems off the radar, but he did work a bullet on April 29th...the best of 19 that session, and with the exception of his first start, he's never been out of the superfecta.  He's also never been to the winner's circle.

Trojan Nation keyed up today, looked like a handful for the rider #KyDerby pic.twitter.com/wuBMbH6EMt

— holly (@kyholmarie) May 3, 2016

Last into the Derby field as it stands now is Mo Tom, who failed as the favorite in the Louisiana Derby.  He appears to have been training well, and if you check out his PP comments, he has had excuses in each of his last three races.

WATCH: Mo Tom breezed 4 furlongs in 48.60 under the Twin Spires this morning. @TomAmossRacing @GMBRacinghttps://t.co/6yT3bRZgRQ

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 29, 2016

Let's Put Some Of The Old Band Back Together 2 May 2016 6:55 AM (8 years ago)

JP Fanshawe returns to blog about the Triple Crown in 2016

I have been missing writing about the horses a little bit, and I've been missing some of the original authors and commenters that used to haunt this virtual space even more.  With that said, keep an eye out for a few posts from me in the coming days.

I look forward to hearing from our old followers, many of whom I am sure may drop by here this week just to see if anything is happening.  SBNation will be providing some content, I am sure, as they did last year, but I will be generating some of our own homegrown stuff, including my usual Derby pace analysis, and picks for the whole Saturday card (and at a minimum, the Oaks as well.)

Say hello in the thread!

And let's have a great Kentucky Derby week!

Belmont Stakes pace preview 6 Jun 2015 5:45 AM (9 years ago)

There hasn't been a Triple Crown winner since 1978. Will that change on Saturday?

American Pharoah has his chance at making history on Saturday afternoon when the third and final leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes, is run. NBC's coverage begins at 4:30 p.m. ET and the expected race time is 6:50 p.m. ET.

Here are the Pace Figures and Past Performances for the Belmont Stakes before American Pharoah attempts to complete the 12th Triple Crown.

Mubtaahij (10/1)

Here's what I had to say about Mubtaahij before the Derby:

The only international runner to compete in the race, Irish bred Mubtaahij carries the burden of his ancestors as seven Irish-bred horses have competed in the Derby since 1974 with an average finish of 12th. His jockey and trainer connections are among the best in Europe and can't be knocked.

While Predicteform does not yet publish international Pace Figures (it's coming), his most recent win in the UAE Derby was visually impressive, winning by eight lengths against a good group of international 3-year-olds. His connections are deeply based in Duba.

His sire, Dubawi, stands in Britain for the equivalent of almost US$200,000. He ran third in a Group 1, 12-furlong affair at Epsom and his offspring show success at up to 10 furlongs, but there is still a question as to whether he can get 12 furlongs. Additionally, and even more importantly, his Derby effort was suspect.

Mubtaahij's Derby effort was just so-so. He had a good stalking spot throughout the race but from mid-stretch to the wire two horses passed him on the outside while two others got him a jump late.

He sports eight previous races with the majority from Dubai. In checking the weather for each racing day from Dubai, it was unseasonably cool with temperatures between 70-80 degrees for each start. With the expectation that his assimilation to the weather and climate will be complete, Mubtaahij will have no excuse.

From a Pace Figure perspective, his one race in the US was a 77.4/68.2 REV, Reversal Pattern. An indication of the first time a runner has a faster final figure than 4f figure, this REV pattern gets discounted as it was his first start and very likely would occur in his first start at this Grade I level going a route of ground (> one mile).

As a matter of course, only one runner in this 2015 Belmont Stakes field does not have a faster final figure then 4f figure -- American Pharoah.

The biggest plus for this horse is the jockey change from a very good international jockey to the top rider at the Belmont Spring Meet, Irad Ortiz Jr., winning at a 27 percent clip.

The Play: Regressor - weakening in the stretch at 10 furlongs doesn't instill confidence at 12 furlongs.

Tale of Verve (15/1)

Here's what we had to say about Tale of Verve prior to the Preakness:

A maiden-only winner, Tale of the Verve tries the impossible jump to Grade I competition. He's won $54,000 lifetime and took five tries to get his first win. His average final Pace Figure is 10 points below the top three.

Picking up the pieces late, Tale of Verve finished second in the Preakness to American Pharoah at odds of 28/1. Moving from maiden company to the Preakness Stakes and finishing second is amazing, but much of that credit goes to American Pharoah. It was anybody's race for second in the Preakness and once the rain started, the options lessened to the runners that didn't mind being pelted. However, the Belmont Stakes at 12 furlongs is a different game. In this year's case, the Preakness was minor league.

Tale of Verve's final pace figures are the slowest in the field. And even if the Preakness final figure is discounted due to the rain (which we are not saying), he is still too slow by five lengths.

The jockey change to Gary Stevens makes for a storyline but his figures say otherwise. Add to it just 21 days rest and the cards are stacked against Tale of Verve.

The Play: Too Slow - his last final figure is three points slower than the rest of the field. To duplicate hitting the board as a long shot in the Belmont will be near impossible.

Madefromlucky (12/1)

Madefromlucky has not dipped his toe in the water in the Triple Crown series until now. Here's what we had to say about Madefromlucky prior to the Arkansas Derby (which American Pharoah won):

After a successful jump into Graded Stakes competition, Madefromlucky takes on American Pharoah again, who beat him handily last out in the Grade II Rebel Stakes. That being said, there are a few interesting angles to like. He makes his third start for top trainer Todd Pletcher, big-game rider Johnnie V stays aboard and he is coming off 28 days of rest, perfectly spaced. His half-sister, A Shin Gold (by Medaglia d'Oro), was a very good race horse in Japan, winning almost $1mm including the Japan Dirt.

His most recent Pace Figure showed a five-point regression from 73.4 - 68.3 but it aligns with American Pharoah's regression, likely due to a very heavy track.

And while he finished a semi-competitive fourth in the Arkansas Derby, his most recent effort in the Peter Pan garners interest. Here's what we said about Madefromlucky earlier in the week:

Madefromlucky ran in the Peter Pan and won, just like Tonalist did prior to his Belmont Stakes win last year. As seen from the chart, Madefromlucky has similar Final and Four Furlong figures to Tonalist entering the last leg of the Triple Crown (about two points off for each). Furthermore, both horses were coming off positive Form Cycle Patterns, Tonalist and his NPT (New Pace Top), while Madefromlucky is currently sitting on a SOFT Pattern (with a previous NPT). Read the full blog post on the value of Madefromlucky here.

Sent off as the fourth choice in a field of just five in the Peter Pan, he rallied into a slow pace, raced four wide while lugging in down the stretch, still winning while going away at a margin of closer to two lengths than one.

Madefromlucky is the second runner in the race from the Todd Pletcher barn and has the top jockey at Belmont Park (and in the US), Javier Castellano on board to ride. Lucky is also one of two runners to previously race at Belmont Park and the only one with a win.

The Play: Breakout/Fringe Contender - New shooter status and series of positive Form Cycle Patterns creates value at morning line odds of 12/1 and still a strong play at double-digit odds currently.

Frammento (30/1)

Here's what we had to say about Frammento before the Derby:

After a late defection Thursday afternoon by Stanford, Frammento scratches in off the also eligible list and inherits the outside post, No. 20. While you can't win it unless you run, pundits might say this longshot had his day in the sun by getting into the race. He's earned only $140,ooo, which puts him dead last in money earned in the field. He has just the one win, breaking his maiden as a two year-old. Beaten by a combined 25 lengths against the likes of Carpe Diem and Upstart, you are looking at the expected longest shot in the race at post time. Interestingly enough, his most recent final figure was a 74.1 and highest of his career but there is significantly more chance that he regresses off that top.

Another who ran a lifetime top in the Derby, Frammento did improve his lifetime best final figure by almost three points. Though he was beat by double-digit lengths, which oftentimes is the "line in the sand."

However, logic can be tossed out the window when you look at his trainer Nick Zito. Zito trained not one, but two Belmont Stakes winners who upset Triple Crown hopefuls! Birdstone in 2004, who upset Smarty Jones (at 3/10), paying $74 to win, and Da' Tara, who paid $79 in winning the 2008 Belmont after Big Brown (3/10) refused to run.

Jockey Mike Smith agreed to ride him for the first time, which is a huge plus after six different riders in his previous eight starts. Smith is well known for getting horses to relax and charge late. Smith has won two of the last five Belmont Stakes with Palace Malice in 2013 and Drosselmeyer in 2010 as well as finishing second in 2012 with Paynter (ironically owned by Zayat Stables).

The Play: Too Slow - Not much to get excited about, the only difference between Frammento and having absolutely no shot is the Zito/Smith combo.

American Pharoah (3/5)

What more can be said about American Pharoah? He's overcome two challenging post positions to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. While the final time in the Kentucky Derby was considered slow, his Derby Pace Figures were excellent. His ability to run through his lifetime Top Pace Figure (81.4) to win the most high profile race in the world from an outside post was a sign of greatness.

He quieted all doubters by dominating the Preakness in wire-to-wire fashion from the rail while running an 81.5 four furlong figure. This is the type of inter-race figure reserved for stakes caliber sprinters and milers, so posting it on the front end of a 9.5 furlong Grade I race is mega-impressive. And while his final figure in the Preakness was just 73.4, he earned an NPT (New Pace Top), the strongest pattern on dirt. The NPT designation occurs when a horse runs its fastest 4f figure of its career yet does not finish with its max final figure. His open length win, while dialed down at the end could also contribute to the 73.4 final.

From a breeding perspective, his Sire is Pioneerof the Nile, who was owned by Zayat and trained by Baffert. His Grand Sire (Sire of his Sire) was Empire Maker, who won the 2003 Belmont Stakes. There is little to report on the Dam side other than to say his Dam, Littleprincessemma, is also owned by Zayat. Trainer Bob Baffert takes his fourth shot at trainer immortality, looking for his first Triple Crown (you can watch all the Triple Crown near misses here).

Standing in American Pharoah's Triple Crown path is not his past performances, pace or speed figures; rather what has taken down the 12 previous Triple Crown contenders: How will he fare running the mile and a half (12 furlongs), which is just once around the biggest track in North America known as "Big Sandy"? Will the other jocks try and race ride Victor Espinoza? Will one of AP's competitors quietly be sitting on the biggest race of its lifetime? Will AP's third race in five weeks (and fourth race in eight weeks), including his Preakness effort over a completely muddy and sticky surface, take a toll?

The Play: Top Contender - Only one Triple Crown contender went off at odds over even money (War Emblem was 6/5 in 2002). American Pharoah is expected to be punished down on the tote board near 2/5, which would require over 70 percent confidence to bet. By our analysis, American Pharoah is the most likely winner of the Belmont and should win this race (and, thus, the Triple Crown) just over 50 percent of the time. From a value perspective, there is little.

Frosted (5/1)

Here's what we had to say about Frosted prior to Kentucky Derby.

An early career "hanger" (a horse that comes close but doesn't win), Frosted was just one for six with four second place finishes before his minor throat surgery which was followed by a big win in the Grade I Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, a key Derby Prep race.

His Final Pace Figure improved from 65.8 to 77.3, a 12-point jump and the biggest improvement from a final figure perspective in the field. However, his four furlong figure regressed from 71 to 65, indicating a runner who is learning to manage his own pace better. Jockey Joel Rosario stays aboard which is a positive.

From a Pace Figure perspective, Frosted's Derby effort was significant. He ran his fastest lifetime final figure of 80, three points quicker than the aforementioned 77.3, with an increasing dirt spread (which means he is conserving his energy later in the race). These back-to-back strong final figures are an illustration of his improvement since his throat surgery in March that has turned him into the Grade I caliber competitor his connections hoped, essentially a different horse from his earlier racing career. From a Pace Figure perspective, we have given significant weight to his post-surgery numbers.

Visually speaking, his Kentucky Derby effort was impressive. He passed a number of horses coming from far back.

Frosted is better bred to go a mile and a half than any other runner in this field. He is by Tapit, the perennial leading stallion in North America who stands for $300,000, and his half-brother Tonalist (same Sire) won last year's Belmont. His Dam Sire, Deputy Minister (mother's dad), has produced three Belmont winners and a second in a dozen years. Read the full Belmont Stakes Breeding Analysis here.

Belmont Park is considered home turf for both trainer Kiaran McLaughlin (29-10-4-4), who is off to a strong Belmont meet, and jockey Joel Rosario. In essence, and unlike the Derby, this is their home court. Lastly, Frosted is one of two runners with a start at Belmont.

The Play: Fringe Contender/Contender - There is a lot in this analysis to indicate he has been pointing to this race for awhile. His morning-line odds of 5/1 are still shorter than they should be in an eight horse field that condenses value. While he is one of three runners with a shot to upset American Pharoah, it's tough to fully buy into his post-surgery numbers and expect him to continue to progress forward.

Keen Ice (20/1)

Here's what we had to say about Keen Ice prior to the Derby.

With a paltry race record of 7-1-0-2 and earnings of $160k, Keen Ice could likely be one of the longest shots on the board. You've got to hand it to his trainer Dale Romans, who has raced him in five straight Graded Stakes races, while cashing checks in every start (albeit 2 percent for running fifth). Romans has been sneaky good in the Derby finishing third in 2010 (Paddy O'Prado) and 2012 (Dullahan) and fourth in 2011 (Shackleford). The jockey change to Desormeaux should also be considered a positive. His final Pace Figure average is just 70.8 with a lifetime top of 74, but he does have an off the pace win at Churchill as a two year-old where he ran a 72 REV Form Cycle Pattern. The Play: Mega longshot - if he appreciates the extra ground (which he might) and shows that off the pace running style, he could blow up the tote board in the bottom part of exotics.

Keen Ice ran a sneaky good Belmont Stakes on the track and from a figure perspective. He finished with a 77.7 final figure, his best lifetime final figure by almost four points, while running a 4f figure of just 60, also a lifetime low. His dirt spread (final figure minus the four furlong figure) was 17.7, the largest in the field.

Visually speaking, Keen Ice was 14th at the top of the stretch; he had to zigzag through horses and got knocked off his right lead at the 16th pole (horses in North America lead with their left on turns and right on straightaway). And while this had no impact on where he finished, it does allow for some belief that he could improve off that effort without trouble.

Sired by Curlin (who ran second in the Belmont in 2007), Keen Ice's half brother, Palace Malice won the 2013 Belmont Stakes. Breeding wise, at least on the top (from the dad), Keen Ice is solid.

Kent Desormeaux retains the mount on Keen Ice, the very same jockey that rode Real Quiet in the 1998 Belmont Stake, ; the most ungracious of all Triple Crown beats ever.

The Play: Too Slow - While he should eat up the extra distance, his figures say he is too slow still to finish in the top three.

Materiality (6/1)

Here's what we had to say about Materiality prior to the Kentucky Derby.

The most lightly raced horse in the field, Materiality has three open length wins from his three starts. Only Big Brown (2008 Derby winner) had three starts prior to his Derby victory. However, Materiality looks to overcome "the granddaddy of Derby rules," as only one runner won the Derby having never raced at two years-old - Apollo in 1882. Since 1937, horses in the Derby without a race at two are 0-for-57. His average Final Pace Figure (via the Value Play view) is 73.8, which puts him mid-pack.

His 6th place finish passing horses in the stretch was better than expected.

His Derby Final Figure was 78.1, the fastest Final Figure of his lifetime by almost three points, while posting his lowest 4f figure. This led to his career best positive dirt spread lifetime (final figure minus four furlong figure) and, similar to Frosted, it means Materiality is learning how to manage and more evenly distribute his pace.

Visually speaking, Materiality ran a heck of a race. He was almost dead last from my perspective after watching the race 20 plus times (not from the PP's) and rallied up the inside to pass eight horses while finishing a quick moving sixth.

Jockey Johnnie Velazquez retakes the mount as he guided Materiality to his three previous victories, while Trainer Todd Pletcher has lit up the Belmont Park Spring Meet winning at a clip of 49% while being in the money 79% (yes, really).

From a breeding perspective, Materiality is by Afleet Alex, winner of the 2005 Belmont Stakes, a possible indication that he can handle the 12 furlong distance.

The Play: Fringe Contender/Regressor - if Johnny Velazquez can keep Materiality close to the lead, he's got a decent chance to steal the race, giving him some value at 6/1, but that will be tough in this field and he's at least as likely to regress.

★★★

Dan Zucker is a co-founder of Predicteform.com (and PredictionMachine.com), a horse racing data analytics company that focuses on how horses are progressing or regressing coming into a race. Zucker is a thoroughbred owner and partner and has campaigned stakes runners - Quiet Meadow, Street Life and Pianist and his current pride and joy, Catch My Drift.

Read more about how Predicteform.com works here.

Preakness 2015: Pace preview 16 May 2015 5:30 AM (9 years ago)

The runner-up at the Kentucky Derby will attempt to make up for its loss during Saturday's race at Pimlico.

The Preakness is my favorite Triple Crown Race. No race can match the pomp and circumstance of the Kentucky Derby, and only one horse can be crowned a Triple Crown winner by winning the Belmont Stakes.

The Preakness is the gate to immortality serving as a pass through for the greatest racehorses of each generation, like an airport where you switch planes, and with every hope that the next flight will get you to your destination on time and with all luggage delivered.

There is a $1.5 million purse, but not one set of owners involved in the Triple Crown are driven by just purse money alone. The connections (owner, trainer, jockey) of each Preakness runner saddles up with their pride, the opportunity to make history and the vision of a having their horse become the next multi-millionaire in the breeding shed.

The success of Preakness winner's in the breeding shed since 2005:

Year	Horse	Farm	2015 Breeding Fee
2014	California Chrome	Still Racing
2013	Oxbow	Calumet Farm (KY)	$17,500
2012	I'll Have Another	Big Red Farm (JPN)	$26,850
2011	Shackleford	Darby Dan (KY)	$20,000
2010	Lookin At Lucky	Ashford Stud (KY)	$25,000
2009	Rachel Alexandra	Filly, now a Broodmare at Stonestreet Farms (KY)
2008	Big Brown	Dutchess Views Farm (KY)	$8,500
2007	Curlin	Lane's End (KY)	$35,000
2006	Bernadini	Darley (KY)	$85,000
2005	Afleet Alex	Gainesway (KY)	$12,500

If the Kentucky Derby is "blue bloods," the Preakness is "blue collar." One of the few horse racing infields still wide open to general admission fans, the Preakness Stakes aims to continue tradition beyond the entry box.

This author has been to most every grade I stakes race in North America and the Preakness Stakes and Saratoga still rank as the best. And while "fan friendly" makes up 20% of this ranking, wagering opportunities and value are the driving force.

With this, I present to you the 140th Preakness Stakes Race Analysis.

The Stakes is run at its unique distance of 1 3/16 miles (9.5 furlongs). Just a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Derby, favorites in the Preakness have typically fared well as seven of the last 10 Derby winners have finished first or second in the race, while the longest priced winner of the race was only 23-1 (Master Derby in 1975).

Here are the Pace Figures and Past Performances for the Preakness Stakes

American Pharoah (4/5)

Here's what we had to say about American Pharoah prior to the Kentucky Derby:

As projected, Pharoah won the Arkansas Derby by eight lengths, in what looked like a public workout. And, speaking of workouts (think practice), his last workout was by all accounts in the press, phenomenal, so much so that he has been compared to the best horses in the past 35 years. The 18 post should suit his running style perfectly as it gives jockey, Victor Espinoza, a clear view of his competitors inside.

He could run through his last final figure as great horses can follow lifetime best after a lifetime best. The pre-race hype and morning-line favorite of odds of 5/2 make for a difficult decision on how to play the race unless you could bet him to win the Triple Crown.

While the final time of the Kentucky Derby was considered slow, American Pharoah's Derby Pace Figures were excellent. His ability to run through his lifetime Top Pace Figure and win the most high profile race in the world from an outside post is a sign of greatness, but his test continues in the Preakness Stakes.

The biggest obstacle for American Pharoah is his post position, the dreaded "one-hole." The reason the inside post is a disadvantage is the horse becomes the only runner in the race that can't choose to head left out of the starting gate; he has to exert more effort to get out of the starting gate quicker than his competitors. Therefore, this Preakness is as much about the human athletes as it is the equine stars.

I'm not convinced American Pharoah has enough speed to get the lead. He was on the lead early in two previous races but in both cases he got the lead easily in rather slow quarter mile times. Using Predicteform's Play Value view and sorting by fastest 4 furlong figure, three other runners (Firing Line, Dortmund and Mr. Z) show faster 4 furlong averages.

So, if you believe as I do that AP would have to over-exert to get the lead, the question becomes, is he good enough to win the Preakness Stakes from a stalking position.

The Play: Fringe Contender - the overwhelming favorite with the best chance to win the race, though from a pure betting position there is limited value.

Dortmund (7/2)

Of the five Derby runners starting in the Preakness, Dortmund's final Pace Figure showed the most improvement. His 80.1 final figure was 3.9 points higher than his previous race and almost two points higher than his lifetime top. This marked improvement with a three-year-old can be a positive step towards on-going progression or a clear mark of a lifetime top, which would indicate regression is forthcoming.

He will benefit from being outside American Pharoah in the second post position. Tactically it's easier to break to the lead versus the inside post. Dortmund has gone to the lead in his last three races and has the second fastest 4 furlong average, just a tic behind Firing Line. Martin Garcia is as crafty as they come, though what has been frustrating from a tactical race perspective is he is less likely to race ride as Dortmund is a stable mate to American Pharoah and also is trained by Bob Baffert. A somewhat common term used in thoroughbred racing, when you think of race riding, think of a poker player that plays the man and not the cards.

The Play: Fringe Contender - the most likely to regress of the top three from the Preakness, he will have value at 4-1 or better.

Mr. Z (20/1)

Mr. Z's trainer D. Wayne Lukas, is considered the "godfather" of trainers, and can cite understudies such as Todd Pletcher, Kiaran McLaughlin and Mike Maker. "Coach" has won more Triple Crown races (14) than any other trainer including six Preakness Stakes.

Mr. Z was owned by Zayat Stables for the Derby, the same owner of American Pharoah. Lukas, likely frustrated with the fact that the dual ownership made Mr. Z a second class citizen, vanned Mr. Z to Pimlico on his own accord and engineered the sale of Mr. Z to Calumet Farm on Wednesday of this week. Calumet Farms is no stranger to the Preakness, winning the race in 2013 with long shot Oxbow.

Do I think that can happen again? Very unlikely. Mr. Z's PFigures are too slow and he has already raced 13 times in his short career with just one win. What I do think is Mr. Z and Mr. Lukas can make American Pharoah's life more difficult.

The Play: Too Slow - while it would be a story for the ages, Mr. Z is too slow to hit the board, but many in the crowd will still be rooting for Mr. Z and the Coach.

Danzig Moon (15/1)

He ran a 76 final figure in the Blue Grass but his prior effort was a 70 which means he moved forward six points, considered a big move along with a lifetime top. While an inside draw is usually not the best place to be, his running style just might appreciate the ability to duck right to the rail.

A fifth place finish in the Derby along with a 78.7 final figure for Danzig Moon, all things considered, is a positive effort. His off the pace running style fits jockey Julien Leparoux like a glove, the reason why these two are paired up together.

The Play: Longshot - a step below the top three but the only serious double digit runner with a chance to hit the board.

Tale of Verve (30/1)

A maiden-only winner, Tale of the Verve tries the impossible jump to Grade I competition. He's won $54,000 lifetime and took five tries to get his first win. His average final Pace Figure is 10 points below the top three.

The Play: Too Slow - a boy against giants, all we can ask what is the owner thinking.

Bodhisattva (20/1)

Named after a Steely Dan Song, Bo-dee-set-va has as much chance to win the Preakness as does its surname in being the opening song of Super Bowl 50.

The single Cal-bred in the field, this homebred has a couple wins against average competition. He is an improving sort who most recently ran a lifetime top of 71 while also owning the lowest average Final Pace Figure lifetime of just 67.

The Play: Another that is just way Too Slow.

Diving Rod (12/1)

The best of the "new shooters," Diving Rod has raced competitively in Grade III competition. By Tapit, his sire stands for $300,000 and is the leading sire in North America, while his dam (mom), is a four-time Grade I winner named Stephanie's Kitten who earned $2.7 million (mostly on grass). She has no other runners on the track to compare, but from a breeding perspective, there is no one better.

Diving Rod ran a distant third to Carpe Diem in the Tampa Bay Derby (who finished tenth in the Derby with a 76.8 final figure), which doesn't give much hope that he can compete against the same runners who beat Carpe Diem easily. His most recent Pace Figure was a 77.7 but a clear five point jump to his lifetime top. He does pick up the services of Javier Castellano, the leading rider in the country but it's somewhat negative by an outside draw next to one of the faster gate leavers in the field.

The Play: Regressor - He is in too tough here but has an optimistic future, especially when he tries the sod.

Firing Line (4/1)

Here's what we had to say about Firing Line prior to the Derby.

A late developing colt, Firing Line has lost to Dortmund by just a head in two races. Combine that with jockey Gary Stevens and an excellent draw of the ten post (an 11.5% win percentage rate since 1930), and no wonder he's been made the co-fourth choice in this field.

Looking at his Pace Figures, his last race is cause for pause. He ran an 81.3/81.2 in the Sunland Derby winning by 14 lengths with the fastest 4f and final figure of all the starters.

Surprisingly, Firing Line ran right back to an 81 final figure in the Derby, running an impressive second to American Pharoah. Initially a "cause for concern," those back to back 81's look strikingly like a foundation. If in fact his foundation (two or more races around the same final figure) is 81, he is a formidable opponent for American Pharoah.

The outside post position (No. 8) gives him a tactical advantage if he breaks, which is expected. Jockey Gary Stevens rode Oxbow on the lead to win the 2013 Preakness Stakes at odds of over 10/1. This setup could be eerily similar with the exception of the emerging superstar on the rail.

The Play: Top Contender - Speed, an 81 final figure foundation and the 4/1 morning-line third choice, provide considerable value on top.

Dan Zucker is a co-founder of Predicteform.com (and PredictionMachine.com), a horse racing data analytics company that focuses on how horses are progressing or regressing coming into a race. Zucker is a thoroughbred owner and partner and has campaigned stakes runners - Quiet Meadow, Street Life and Pianist and his current pride and joy, Catch My Drift.

Read more about how Predicteform.com works here.

Preakness 140 Preview and Picks 14 May 2015 5:17 PM (9 years ago)

Time to figure out if we'll get a chance to get our hopes up for a Triple Crown winner in three weeks time or if American Pharoah will bounce. Might not hurt to take a look at those other 7 runners, too.

# Horse, Jockey (Past winners, if any), Trainer (Past winners, if any), Morning Line Odds

1 American Pharoah, Victor Espinoza (2002, 2014), Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2010), 4-5*

Good:  Well, there's the obvious fact that he won the Kentucky Derby with a trip that resembled I'll Have Another's triumph in 2012, right down to catching a horse that caught a perfect trip en route to a win with a wide post.  It also helps that he has the tactical speed to make his own trip in most races.  While the rail isn't the greatest spot to be in, unless it's a dead rail, he's still the one to beat.  Also, since 1997, half the Derby winners have came back to repeat the effort in the Preakness.  9/17 once you factor in that Barbaro didn't get a chance to run the whole race in 2006.

Bad:  Orb was impressive in winning his Derby.  As were Fusaichi Pegasus and Animal Kingdom.   All three of them lost to horses they beat two weeks before their Preakness defeats.  Getting 4-5 odds on an inside post where he could be stuck inside of Dortmund and Firing Line isn't terribly appealing if everything goes against him.  He only won by around 1 length despite getting things his way in the Derby, but that can be owed to a wide trip.  He's my pick to win, though I won't bet him to win directly.

2 Dortmund, Martin Garcia (2010), Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2010), 7-2

Good:  Despite doing the dirty work in the Derby, he hung around for a solid third.  It was reminiscent of Shackleford's run in 2011 before he won his Preakness.  Only two horses the past 25 years have won the Preakness with more than 14-15 days off.  It's often the ones that didn't win the Derby, but ran in it, that spoil the fun in Baltimore. A repeat effort of his Derby, other than him fading in the stretch, could see him home.

Bad:  He's never really flattened out as much as he did in the Derby in the stretch before that loss.  How much did that race take out of him?  He figures to be second choice again to his stablemate, which means betting him to win might not yield too handsome of a return at the betting window.  He couldn't have had an easier lead in the Derby on a track that wasn't unkind to speed and still got beat by two horses in the lane.  I think he's the likeliest to beat the Pharoah, but that last start discouraged me some.   My second choice here.

3 Mr. Z, Corey Nakatani, D. Wayne Lukas (1980, 1985, 1994, 1995, 1999, 2013), 20-1

Good:  Lukas has won 5 Preakness Stakes' in the past.  Oxbow ran a bit off the boil in his Derby before winning for him in 2013.  Then again, Oxbow was against the bias in slop in his Derby, whereas Mr. Z didn't really threaten the top five or six in his.  Stranger things have happened.  He's seasoned in his starts, at least.

Bad:  Seems odd that he would get sold the week of a race just to run against his ex-owner.  Also, he's lost 12 on the trot.  Hard to believe that he'd turn it around that drastically in this spot.  The nickname "Deranged Lukas" comes to mind in placing this guy here.

4 Danzig Moon, Julien Leparoux, Mark Casse, 15-1

Good:  His fifth wasn't horrible, considering the top three stayed in the top three in some order on Derby Day. There are worse things than having Julien Leparoux aboard.  Since he's an Ontario bred, he could win the Queens Plate (Canada's Derby, more or less).  So there's that.

Bad:  Sitting sixth often wins a lot of Derbies, or at least gives you a good shake at the top three.  From start to finish, he passed 1 horse and lost 4 lengths.  Which suggests he may not gain ground on the top rivals in here.  Not a fan of the fact that he only has 1 lifetime win, either.

5 Tale of Verve, Joel Rosario, Dallas Stewart, 30-1

Good:  He exits his last race a winner at the Preakness distance, which no one else can claim (though American Pharoah did win the Derby at a longer distance).  Joel Rosario has won a Derby (2013) and a Belmont (2014) in his past.  Maybe he can complete a personal Triple Crown of sorts?

Bad:  He really shouldn't be in here on form.  His 1 3/16 mile win was clocked in over 2 minutes.   Which is roughly three seconds slower than the Derby time that AP ran last out.  Although Beyers are sometimes deceiving, he still runs about 10-20 points or more slower than the others.  Would be a shock on the scale of winning a jackpot on a slot machine while the Cubs win the World Series on the same night if he won on Saturday.

6 Bodhisattva, Trevor McCarthy, Jose Corrales, 20-1

Good:  He won the Tesio, Pimlico's local prep, and the runners from that race tend to fare well in this race; even if they don't win, sometimes they crack the top 3-4.  The action on the top 3 from the Derby might make him an attractive 15-1 or higher if you like him to defend his home course well.

Bad:  It's not like he's Blame going up against Zenyatta at Churchill here in terms of quality of wins or running style. His running lines suggest he's similar to the top 3, but not as fast or consistent as they are.  It's also been 32 years since a Tesio winner won the Preakness.  Don't think he'll be the one to end that dry spell.

7 Divining Rod, Javier Castellano (2006), Arnaud Delacour, 12-1

Good:  His jockey won the 2006 Preakness, though that was more known for Barbaro's unfortunate breakdown.  His Lexington win was impressive, even if what he faced wasn't the quality of the Derby field.  Unlike the other contenders that aren't the 3 favorites, he has the tactical speed to keep up with them if the pace dawdles again.

Bad:  Hasn't beat the top horses just yet.  Couldn't keep up with Carpe Diem at Tampa, and he got trounced by the top 3 two weeks ago.  No horse has won the Preakness on over 3 weeks rest besides Red Bullet in the past 25 years.  Not sure he's the one to take advantage of that rest, though he could easily get a top 2-3 finish.  My third choice in here, though I don't think he can win without a lot of help.

8 Firing Line, Gary Stevens (1997, 2001, 2013), Simon Callaghan, 4-1

Good:  Always digs in for a fight, as he's never been worse than second in a race in his life.  Finally beat Dortmund home in a race, though one more beat the both of them.  Trainer and jockey are 25% when not with Firing Line and 33% with Firing Line together since 2014.  A repeat effort of the Derby could see him home.

Bad:  Didn't switch leads in the Derby, which is not a good sign for a distance runner.  Also has twice as many seconds as wins.  Sure, he's gritty, but you need an extra gear to win 9.5-12 furlong races.  While his gears are consistent and solid, I'm not sure he can separate from the bunch unless he towers over them.  And these are his peers, not his subordinates.  No Derby runner-up has won the Preakness since Summer Squall in 1990.  I also have a feeling he'll be second choice in the betting and might bounce, as he prefers rest between his starts, not just two weeks of it.

My preferred order of finish:  1-2-7-4-8-6-3-5

Kentucky Derby pace preview 2 May 2015 7:49 AM (9 years ago)

Or will American Pharoah reign supreme on Saturday evening?

A $2 million purse is up for grabs at the 141st Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Contested at a distance of nine furlongs from legendary Churchill Downs, the Derby is carded as the 11th of 13 races. NBC Sports will televise the race live at 6:43 p.m. ET with a full series of undercard races to be seen on NBCSN throughout Saturday. Find the full broadcast schedule here for Derby Weekend.

In-depth analysis of the 2015 Kentucky Derby including Pace Figures and Form Cycle Pattern of each starter follow. Please refer to the Legend or Pattern Guide for back-up definitions and patterns.

California Chrome won the 2014 Kentucky Derby with a 79.1 Final Pace Figure. As a point of comparison, here are the Pace Figures for all runners going into the 2014 Derby as well as the four furlong and final pace figures for each of the 2014 Derby runners.

No. 1 Ocho Ocho Ocho (50/1)
Elvis Trujillo (jockey)/James M. Cassidy (trainer)

After a stellar 2-year-old season, Ocho Ocho Ocho has not been able to get back to that level as a 3-year-old. He's been beaten by both Carpe Diem and Dortmund his last two starts by a combined 20 lengths. And while he does have a Reversal Form Cycle Pattern in his last start, which is a positive, the door on his chances to even hit the board completely shut when he drew the dreaded No. 1 post.

The Play: Too Slow - the rail and slow final figures make his task all but insurmountable.

No. 2 Carpe Diem (8/1)
John R. Velazquez/Todd A. Pletcher

A $1.6 million purchase as a 2-year-old from the OBS March Sale, Carpe Diem has all but earned his purchase price back ($1.52 million and counting) in his brilliant nine-month racing career. His only loss came in the 2014 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but surrounding that race are four open length wins.

He's raced at four different tracks using a variety of running styles (speed, stalk and close), a very difficult thing for any horse to do, and thus seemingly intuitive and not taught. His sire, Giant's Causeway, had 23 Graded Stakes winners in 2014, ranking him No. 1 in North America in that category. His dam is the only mother in the field to produce a Grade I stakes winner, which means from a breeding perspective he stands out.

His average final Pace Figure is 75.4, which ranks third in this race (behind Dortmund and Firing Line). More importantly, he's run back-to-back 77s, establishing his foundation at that number. It's a figure he should not dip below. You'll notice his last effort of 77.4 was a slight decline while running a SOFT Form Cycle Pattern, which means he won with something left in the tank. The slight decline combined with an easy win can be a better sign than a lifetime top with an easy win.

There's a lot to like, but what can we knock? His trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez are a combined two-for-65 in their Kentucky Derby history. These "connection" stats will certainly sway bettors off him. The second post position is a legitimate disadvantage. His jockey will only be able to see how the horse to his inside and outside break, which means he'll need to react quickly and is unlikely to have a plan.

The Play: Top Contender - the inside draw will inflate his odds, making him an underlay. Exactly what we are looking for in the top pick to win the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

No. 3 Materiality (12/1)
Javier Castellano/Todd Pletcher

The least raced horse in the field, Materiality has three open length wins from his three starts. Only Big Brown (2008 Derby winner) had three starts prior to his Derby victory. However, Materiality looks to overcome "the granddaddy of Derby rules," as only one runner won the Derby having never raced at two years old -- Apollo in 1882. Since 1937, horses in the Derby without a race at two are winless in 57 attempts.

His average Final Pace Figure (via the Value Play view) is 73.8, which puts him mid-pack.

The Play: Regressor - the other runner to have never faced more than nine foes (American Pharoah is the other), too many negatives to back.

No. 4 Tencedur (30/1)
Manuel Franco/George Weaver

This New York-bred horse has only raced at Aqueduct, and up until his last effort, Tencendur wasn't even close to getting into the Derby. His last race was a vast improvement, turning for home in the Wood Memorial on top at 21/1. Yes, he got reined in by an improved Frosted but also proved he can compete at the Grade I level.

His Pace Figures tell an interesting story as well with three positive dirt patterns, all run on off-tracks. Notice the 72 New Pace Top (NPT) on March 7, followed by his lifetime best of 76.4. And while that final figure was a lifetime top, he did it with a manageable 4f figure avoiding the dreaded DTOP.

His average final figure is just 72.8 but he comes from one of the stronger broodmare (mother) lines in the field and I can't get off him now.

The Play: Long shot - the inside post and unknown jockey will keep his odds inflated, what you want to see for a reach underneath.

No. 5 Danzig Moon (30/1)
Julien R. Leparoux/ Mark E. Casse

Finishing second to Carpe Diem in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes has quickly put Danzig Moon on the map, though he's only won once in his career. Bred in Canada, the last north-of-the-border Derby winner was Sunny's Halo in 1983.

He ran a 76 final figure in the Blue Grass, but that's a six-point improvement from his prior race of 70, which is considered a big move along with a lifetime top. While an inside draw is usually not the best place to be, his running style just might appreciate the ability to duck right to the rail.

The Play: Regressor - he will be used by players in the bottom of exotics off his last race but we'll look elsewhere to fill out those slots.

No. 6 Mubtaahij (20/1)
Christophe Soumillon/MF de Kock

The only international runner to compete in the race, Irish-bred Mubtaahij carries the burden of his ancestors: seven Irish-bred horses have competed in the Derby since 1974 with an average finish of 12th. His jockey and trainer connections are among the best in Europe and can't be knocked.

While Predicteform does not yet publish international Pace Figures, his most recent win in the UAE Derby was visually impressive, winning by eight lengths against a good group of international 3-year-olds. His connections are deeply based in Dubai and if the UAE Derby was a home game, the Kentucky Derby is a road trip.

The Play: Too Slow - a lot to ask of a 3-year-old, traveling around the world off his best race lifetime.

No. 7 El Kabeir (30/1) - SCRATCHED

No. 8 Dortmund (3/1)
Martin Garcia/Bob Baffert

Dortmund won the Santa Anita Derby by four lengths, taking his lifetime record to six-for-six with earnings in excess of $1.25 million. His Final Pace Figure was 76.2, a slight regression off his previous 76.9, making it four races in a row where his final figure had decreased. He does possess a win at Churchill, which does alleviate any concerns about handling the surface. His sire, Big Brown, won the Kentucky Derby (2008), one of only three runners in this field that can stake that claim.

The Play: Fringe Contender - he's been a massive favorite each race of his career, which makes his morning-line odds of 3/1 quite appealing.

No. 9 Bolo (30/1)
Rafael Bejarano/Carla Gaines

The only runner in the field to establish a clear foundation on turf, Bolo has made a smooth transition to running on dirt. His two competitive efforts against Dortmund show he is on the cusp of being able to compete with the best 3 year olds in the country.

His average final figure is 75.1, which is fifth highest in the field. He is the only runner to show two positive Form Cycle Patterns back-to-back. Two races lifetime on dirt, with a 75.1/71.5 Compression (COMP) Pattern and a 73.2/73.8 New Pace Top (NPT) Pattern. Individually these two patterns are strong indicators of progression, back-to-back like this means the horse is coming into his own. The NPT is considered the strongest indicator of progression on dirt and it is of note that he is the only runner with that indication.

Sure, he's only got two starts on dirt which is the fewest in the field but he has a couple fast 4f figures of 76 and 78 on turf. West Coast leading jockey Rafael Bejarano gets the call looking for his first in-the-money Kentucky Derby finish in what will be his 10th start.

The Play: Fringe Contender - positive Form Cycle Patterns, a decent post to allow for a variety of jockey tactics and morning-line of 30/1 make for an appealing longshot.

No. 10 Firing Line (12/1)
Gary L. Stevens/Simon Callaghan

A late developing colt, Firing Line has lost to Dortmund by just a head in two races. Combine that with jockey Gary Stevens and an excellent draw of the tenth post (an 11.5 win percentage rate since 1930), and no wonder he's been made the co-fourth choice in this field.

Looking at his Pace Figures, his last race is cause for pause. He ran an 81.3/81.2 in the Sunland Derby winning by 14 lengths with the fastest 4f and final figure of all the starters. His average final figure is 76.5, the second highest in the field, behind only Dortmund. His four furlong average is 77.2, again, second highest in the field behind Ocho Ocho Ocho.

The Play: Regressor - More likely that history repeats itself then this colt is able to pair up final figures.

No. 11 Stanford (30/1) - SCRATCHED

No. 12 International Star (20/1) - SCRATCHED

No. 13 Itsaknockout (30/1)
Luis Saez/Todd A. Pletcher

A distant fourth in the Florida Derby, 20 lengths behind both Upstart and Materiality, Itsaknockout is hard to figure considering the previous comments on the former two runners.

His final Pace Figure average in four races lifetime is under 70, with significant regression from 74 to his most recent 64 in the Florida Derby.

The Play: Too Slow - that's it, period.

No. 14 Keen Ice (50/1)
Kent J. Desormeaux/Dale L. Romans

With a paltry race record of 7-1-0-2 and earnings of $160,000, Keen Ice could likely be one of the longest shots on the board. You've got to hand it to trainer Dale Romans who has raced him in five straight Graded Stakes races, while cashing checks in every start. Romans has been sneaky good in the Derby, finishing third in 2010 (Paddy O'Prado) and 2012 (Dullahan) and fourth in 2011 (Shackleford). The jockey change to Desormeaux should also be considered a positive.

His final Pace Figure average is just 70.8 with a lifetime top of 74, but he does have an off the pace win at Churchill as a 2-year-old where he ran a 72 REV Form Cycle Pattern.

The Play: Mega longshot - if he appreciates the extra ground (which he might) and shows that off the pace running style, he could blow up the tote board in the bottom part of exotics.

No. 15 Frosted (15/1)
Joel Rosario/Kiaran P. McLaughlin

An early career "hanger" (a horse that comes close but doesn't win), Frosted was just one-for-six with four second place finishes before his minor throat surgery which was followed by a big win in the Grade I Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, a key Derby Prep race.

His Final Pace figure improved from 65.8 to 77.3, a 12-point jump and the biggest improvement from a final figure perspective in the field. However, his four furlong figure regressed from 71 to 65, indicating a runner who is learning to manage his own pace better. Jockey Joel Rosario stays aboard which is a positive.

The Play: Regressor - tough to imagine he can run back-to-back lifetime tops out of the blue.

No. 16 War Story (50/1)
Joseph Talamo/Thomas M. Amoss

Another Midwest runner, War Story has finished behind International Star in his last three starts by a total of eight lengths. The Louisiana Derby was a chance for him to prove he could move forward to a level that would make him Derby competitive; unfortunately he did not.

His last race figures were 72.9/64.2, regression in both the final and four furlong figure from 74.9/71.

The Play: Regressor - Figures heading the wrong way combined with a "no-man's-land" 16 post for a runner without tactical speed looks too tough.

No. 17 Mr. Z (50/1)
Ramon A. Vazquez/Wayne D. Lukas


Mr. Z did not disappoint his show backers in the Arkansas Derby where he ran a distant third to American Pharoah at odds of 20/1. His final Pace Figure of 75.3 was his second highest lifetime and a 10-point positive jump from the prior effort.

He's got a modicum of tactical speed, but that will be neutralized drawing the 17th post. Under normal conditions I would expect a Lukas-trained long-shot horse to try and give headaches to a Baffert favorite. However, in this case both runners have the same owner so it becomes rather unlikely.

The Play: Regressor - too much to do from the 17th post for a runner who has been campaigned like a seasoned racehorse.

No. 18 American Pharoah (5/2)
Victor Espinoza/Bob Baffert

As projected, Pharoah won the Arkansas Derby by eight lengths in what looked like a public workout. His last actual workout was by all accounts in the press phenomenal, so much so that he has been compared to the best horses in the past 35 years.

His sire Pioneer of the Nile ran second in the 2009 Derby while his dam, Littleprincessemma, did little on the track. While on paper and on the track he is already being called a Triple Crown contender, Pharoah is one of only two horses that has never run in a field of greater than nine horses, an important note as he takes on 19 others Saturday. The 18th post should suit his running style perfectly: jockey Victor Espinoza will have a clear view of his competitors inside.

From a Pace Figure perspective his Arkansas Derby effort was an 80.2/78.9 (final/4furlong) Double Top (DTOP) Form Cycle Pattern. Defined as a race in which the horse has run its best 4F and final Pace Figures by a notable margin, it is considered a negative designation and a sign of potential regression.

The Play: Regressor- he could run through his last final figure as great horses can follow lifetime best after a lifetime best. The pre-race hype and morning-line favorite of odds of 5/2 make for a difficult decision on how to play the race unless you could bet him to win the Triple Crown.

No. 19 Upstart (15/1)
Jose L. Ortiz/Richard A Violette, Jr.

Upstart, one of three New York-bred horses this year, would like to join Funny Cide (2002) as the only New York winner. In a similar vein to El Kabeir, his figures look like a horse that peaked early in his 3-year-old season.

The Play: Regressor - would need a big jump in his final figure to compete, which looks extremely unlikely.

No. 20 Far Right (30/1)
Mike E. Smith/Ron Moquett

A distant second to American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby, Far Right is a come-from-behind type runner who has been at the back of the pack in his last four starts, which means he could be dead last coming from the outside post. Jockey Mike Smith stays aboard and is one of the best big race jocks in the business. Smith excels on late running horses (think Zenyatta), but his Derby race record is just one-for-20.

His Final Pace Figure last race was a 76.5, a clear lifetime top and well above his career average of 71.4.

The Play: Too Slow - unless an unreal speed duel takes place up front, he will have too much work to do from way behind.

No. 21 Frammento (50/1)
No Rider/Nicholas P. Zito

After a late defection Thursday afternoon by Stanford, Frammento scratches in off the also eligible list and inherits the outside post, No. 20. While you can't win it unless you run, pundits might say this longshot had his day in the sun by getting into the race.

He's earned only $140,000, which puts him dead last in money earned in the field. He has just the one win, breaking his maiden as a two year-old. Beaten by a combined 25 lengths against the likes of Carpe Diem and Upstart, you are looking at the expected longest shot in the race at post time.

Interestingly enough, his most recent final figure was a 74.1 and highest of his career but there is significantly more chance that he regresses off that top.

The Play: The first also eligible to race in the Derby, his odds of running were 50/1, while his odds of winning should be north of 100/1.

Dan Zucker is a co-founder of Predicteform.com (and PredictionMachine.com), a horse racing data analytics company that focuses on how horses are progressing or regressing coming into a race. Zucker is a thoroughbred owner and partner and has campaigned stakes runners - Quiet Meadow, Street Life and Pianist and his current pride and joy, Catch My Drift.

Read more about how Predicteform.com works here.

Derby Day!!! 2 May 2015 5:39 AM (9 years ago)

Let's reunite the band, if only for one more day. It's Derby time. Meaning I'll either look brilliant (2008, 2012, 2013, 2014), come up just short (2011), or be comically off (2009, 2010). We shall see. Now to run that race in Louisville that's a big deal for all us...

*also on the Card Chronicle site*

Been awhile since I've wrote one of these analyses of a horse race. I used to do this all the time back when And Down The Stretch They Come was active. For what it's worth, I correctly picked the last 3 Derby winners and ran 2nd behind Animal Kingdom in 2011 with Nehro. Which means I'm due to pick a dud, but we'll see. Here's a breakdown of the horses running in this year's Kentucky Derby:

My top 5 picks: 8-19-3-18-6

#1 Ocho Ocho Ocho (Jockey-Elvis Trujillo; Trainer-James Cassidy; Morning Line-50/1)

Positives: He has 3 wins, including a 1 1/16 mile win as a two year old against two other Derby starters. The scratches of El Kabeir and Stanford might make his post position slightly less scary, as the inside 2 posts in a 20 horse field basically stare the inside rail in the face after the first 40-50 yards of the Derby after the break. Also figures to play a factor in the early pace. His sire, Street Sense, won the 2007 Derby as well.

Negatives: 0/2 as a 2 year old against many in this field. That rail post isn't usually the greatest at Churchill Downs unless your jockey is Calvin Borel, either. I'll pass on his chances.

#2 Carpe Diem (Jockey-John Velazquez; Trainer-Todd Pletcher; Morning Line-8/1)

Positives: He's only lost one race, which was last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The last four Derbies have been won by winners of their most recent prep race; he won the Blue Grass in a style that would suit him well in the Derby. His trainer won the 2010 Derby and his jockey won the 2011 Derby. His sire, Giant's Causeway, narrowly lost to Tiznow in the 2000 Breeders' Cup Classic on the grounds as well. It also helps that the Oaks winner won Keeneland's prep race in her prior start.

Negatives: No Blue Grass winner has also won the Derby since 1991 when Strike the Gold did it. Then again, the newest iteration of Keeneland's dirt plays similarly in running style to Churchill Downs since it was installed last Fall, and he's 2/2 for there. His value may not be terribly great, either, as it's very possible he could be the third choice in the race when there are 9-12 viable options to win this race.

#3 Materiality (Jockey-Javier Castellano; Trainer-Todd Pletcher; Morning Line-12/1)

Positives: Not that I drink from the chalice of the Beyer speed figure too heavily, but he has the top Beyer in the field. It also helps that he's 3/3 and won impressively in the Florida Derby, a prep that yielded the 2013, 2008, and 2006 winners of the Derby. His dad, in a less bizarre Derby, may have been a Triple Crown winner, as he was a threat to win the 2005 Derby late in the running before winning the Preakness and Belmont after that. Pletcher also trained Super Saver in 2010.

Negatives: There's only been one winner win the Derby without racing at 2. And that was Apollo, when Chester Arthur was president...in 1882. If Curlin and Forego (to be fair, Forego had the misfortune of being born the same year as Secretariat) couldn't win the Derby without a 2 year old start, it's a big ask for Materiality to do so. Also suspicious of what he beat in Florida besides Upstart.

#4 Tencendur (Jockey-Manuel Franco; Trainer-George Weaver; Morning Line-30/1)

Positives: He's finished in the top 5 in every start, which suggests he doesn't get beaten soundly too often. He ran against the bias a bit when he held on for second in the Wood Memorial. Like Funny Cide, he's a New York bred coming off a decent second place finish at Aqueduct. He also has proven he can pass horses if the pace is fast.

Negatives: Still eligible for an entry-level allowance race. Even Mine That Bird had multiple victories under his belt prior to his 2009 Derby upset. Also, his win came in the mud, and the track figures to be playing fast in the Derby this year. Might be over-matched in here.

#5 Danzig Moon (Jockey-Julien Leparoux; Trainer-Mark Casse; Morning Line-30/1)

Positives: He ran a decent second to Carpe Diem in the Blue Grass. Julien Leparoux is among the best, if not the best, jockey yet to win a Derby. He also has experience running at Churchill Downs, something that seemed to help Super Saver and Street Sense in their Derbies.

Negatives: He would have to make up a few lengths on Carpe Diem, let alone the Baffert duo, to catch up with these. The running style and pace may suit him better here, but I need to see him improve before I'll believe it can happen.

#6 Mubtaahij (Jockey-Christophe Soumillon; Trainer-Michael de Kock; Morning Line-20/1)

Positives: He's ran at 1 3/16 miles, just shy of the Derby distance, and won both times. He's been a revelation on the dirt, as he's 4/5 on the main track. He might have the best (certainly the most underrated) trainer in the world at his disposal and he has made the "Derby move" where he can pass horses and accelerate quickly to draw off from the field in a flash. Probably the best UAE Derby entrant to give this a try since Worldly Manner in 1999.

Negatives: No one has shipped from Dubai and made this work, or even hit the board, for that matter. He had a dream set-up in the UAE Derby and received weight from some of his foes since Southern Hemisphere 3 year olds (4 for us in the North) can run as well. Also picks up more weight than some of the others, which is usually rare for a European horse.

#7 El Kabeir scratched with a foot bruise. No Calvin Borel magic unless he picks up the mount on #21.

#8 Dortmund (Jockey-Martin Garcia; Trainer-Bob Baffert; Morning Line-3/1)

Positives: He has yet to lose, and one of those wins happens to be at Churchill Downs. Firing Line's prep win flattered his form. While he has been on the engine as a 3 year old, that may be a byproduct of racing at Santa Anita, a track that favors speed. He passed to win all three races as a 2 year old. Daddy won for fun in the 2008 Derby as well. Bob Baffert won the 1997, 1998, and 2002 Derbies. Unlike his stablemate, he's dug in and won in a close race before, which is why I give him my top pick for the 2015 Derby and will bet him to win if he's 9/2 or better.

Negatives: The San Felipe aside, he's faced small fields in his last few starts. Seeing 18 other runners might be more prone to seeing troubled trips, but all horses have that dilemma in the Derby. Value may also suffer a bit, as he's the likely second choice. At least there aren't trainer entries anymore, as he'd be odds-on then.

#9 Bolo (Jockey-Rafael Bejarano; Trainer-Carla Gaines; Morning Line-30/1)

Positives: If you like Dortmund, Bolo is a must use in exactas and trifectas by default, as he ran third behind Dortmund in his preps this year. Rafael Bejarano ought to know the track well, as he used to ride at Churchill Downs regularly. Might be easier for him to pass in the Derby than at the merry-go-round that Santa Anita can be at times.

Negatives: He's only won twice, and those were grass starts at 2. Carla Gaines is also ice-cold training this year, as she has only won 4% of her starts. Also, Bejarano and Gaines are 0/6 since 2014 when teaming up with horses.

#10 Firing Line (Jockey-Gary Stevens; Trainer-Simon Callaghan; Morning Line-12/1)

Positives: Save his maiden race, where he still ran second after a bad break, he either wins or runs a game second behind Dortmund in his races. Gary Stevens also took down the 1988, 1995 and 1997 Derbies. Line of David won the 2010 Arkansas Derby where he beat Super Saver (before the roles reversed in Louisville that year).

Negatives: If Dortmund is in the race, he can't beat him. And Dortmund is here. I am also wary of betting Sunland Derby horses that run off for fun against softer fields. Mine That Bird at least saw a tougher field and a troubled trip with his jockey before picking up Calvin Borel in the irons for the '09 Derby. Animal Kingdom's also the only horse in the last 50+ years to win with a 6+ week break.

#11 Stanford also has scratched. That's why the #21 will run.

#12 International Star (Jockey-Miguel Mena; Trainer-Michael Maker; Morning Line-20/1)

Positives: He has won all his starts so far this year, something that helped California Chrome and I'll Have Another find the winner's circle in their years. His dad won the 2000 Derby with ease. He's probably the best horse that the Ramseys have owned that could run in the Derby.

Negatives: The horses he beat at Fair Grounds are or would be longshots in here. His race over the grounds as a 2 year old was a bit mediocre, though he did chase El Kabeir all the way around the track, to be fair. He may not have the evidence to run as fast as the favorites yet, although he could do it.

#13 Itsaknockout (Jockey-Luis Saez; Trainer-Todd Pletcher; Morning Line-30/1)

Positives: One of several Todd Pletcher entrants. His dad spoiled Charismatic's Triple Crown bid in 1999. He was 3/3 prior to the Florida Derby, so one bad start isn't a total wash on his chances, per se.

Negatives: The #3 and #19 beat him by the length of the stretch in the Florida Derby. And the third place finisher had him by another 7 lengths. Also, his Fountain of Youth win was aided by a DQ where Upstart bothered him.

#14 Keen Ice (Jockey-Kent Desormeaux; Trainer-Dale Romans; Morning Line-50/1)

Positives: Kent Desormeaux has won 3 Derbies (1998, 2000, 2008). Curlin liked the track, other than on Derby Day, where an inside post hampered his chances and he ran a decent third with a bad trip in 2007. His lone win did come at Churchill Downs.

Negatives: Were this a Derby from the 1990's, he'd certainly be part of the mutuel field because of his poor record. While his win was impressive at Churchill, that's his only win, meaning an undercard allowance race might suit him better. Would have to improve along with a Giacomo-like meltdown of pace to have a realistic chance.

#15 Frosted (Jockey-Joel Rosario; Trainer-Kiaran McLaughlin; Morning Line-15/1)

Positives: Won the Wood Memorial with Joel Rosario aboard. Joel won a prep race (in Florida) to see Orb home in 2013 with a horse with a similar running style. He seems to run better the longer that he runs races.

Negatives: Couldn't shake Upstart in Florida, and would have to do so here to succeed. Has yet to win outside of New York. Might be a bit of a hanger, too, as he has 4 seconds against 2 wins.

#16 War Story (Jockey-Joe Talamo; Trainer-Tom Amoss; Morning Line-50/1)

Positives: Another horse with a Churchill win. Tom Amoss knows the track as well or better than anyone, as he trains there locally. Were it not for International Star, we might be talking about him as a serious contender, as he beat him all three times at Fair Grounds (twice being the only horse to beat him).

Negatives: No wins this year thanks to the #12. Not sure how he'll react to having blinkers off, as he's always worn them until the Derby. Also an old "mutuel field" horse were this the 1990's.

#17 Mr. Z (Jockey-Ramon Vazquez; Trainer-D Wayne Lukas; Morning Line-50/1)

Positives: Has D Wayne Lukas in tow (won the 1988, 1995, 1996, 1999 Derbies) as well as good seasoning with 12 starts. He did break his maiden at Churchill Downs. His breeding suggests that 1 1/4 miles shouldn't be an issue for him.

Negatives: The ignored horse that Zayat owns, he only has 1 win in those 12 starts. Which came in his first start, mind you. 11 race losing streaks usually don't get snapped in the Derby. Also might get burned in the early pace.

#18 American Pharoah (Jockey-Victor Espinoza; Trainer-Bob Baffert; Morning Line Favorite-5/2)

Positives: Has last year's Derby winning jockey and a 3-time Derby winning trainer. Since his first start, he has done no wrong in his 4 wins since then. The Arkansas Derby proved that he can pass a target if he doesn't get the lead. Outside post shouldn't hurt either, as only Upstart figures to be a horse that might press him inside. His dad was second to Mine That Bird in the 2009 Derby.

Negatives: Like Point Given, the 2001 favorite, he has beat up on small fields in his prep races. Seeing 18 neighbors might see him get into trouble. It's also possible that Mr. Z, his other cohort of the Zayat stable, could burn him up in a pace duel along with Ocho Ocho Ocho. Figures to be cheap, as he'll be favored, so betting him to win might not be the handsomest return at the betting window.

#19 Upstart (Jockey-Jose Ortiz; Trainer-Richard Violette; Morning Line-15/1)

Positives: Ran well in all his starts, even in defeat. No shame in his last two losses, as Materiality got to set the pace and he was taken down from first in the start prior to that. A repeat effort of the Florida Derby or Holy Bull would see him run very well, if not win. Capable of making a move on the turn to help him win and should stay clear of trouble in the 18 outpost.

Negatives: He's lost 3 of his last 4, including to several of his rivals. His early speed, while tactical, could leave him very wide on the turns. I need to see him win and run straight before I'll believe it can happen again the way his last two starts were. A hard ran second at Gulfstream might have tired him for this one.

#20 Far Right (Jockey-Mike Smith; Trainer-Ron Moquett; Morning Line-30/1)

Positives: One of a litany of horses with a Churchill win in his past. His Oaklawn races are good enough to stay live in these fields. His Beyer got a little undermarked because American Pharoah romped ahead of him in a second place effort. Mike Smith has closed with a longshot before to win this race (2005-Giacomo).

Negatives: While Mike Smith is an outstanding jockey, picking up Calvin Borel may have helped him a bit more to save ground until he has to pass horses. Smith tends to ride his horses wide, and this could cause a great deal of ground loss, which compromises his kick unless they go insane up front early in here.

#21 Frammento (Jockey-Corey Nakatani; Trainer-Nick Zito; Morning Line-50/1)

Positives: Nick Zito won the 1991 and 1994 Derbies. Considering he tried to close up a dead rail in the Blue Grass, his fourth place finish wasn't horrible. Might clunk up a top four finish behind the winner, as he reminds a bit of Golden Soul.

Negatives: Were the Derby bet like an ordinary race, he'd be about 60-1 or higher to win this race, as he was in the Fountain of Youth. But since it's the Derby and people bet everything and everyone because of Mine That Bird and Giacomo, who were at least closers with top riders, he'll be grossly overbet. A first-level allowance race would seem a much better fit than this. Zito is channeling his inner Lukas in that he's running a horse just to be in the Derby.

#22 Tale of Verve didn't draw into the field since #7's scratch came too late on Friday.

Kentucky Derby fever arrives 29 Apr 2015 5:30 AM (9 years ago)

Ocho Ocho Ocho takes the No. 1 position.

It's Kentucky Derby Week and for the 141st time, the top three-year-olds in the world converge on Louisville, K.Y., looking to get their picture taken in the Churchill Downs Winner's Circle. Along with a $2 million purse -- $1.2 million to the winner -- the Kentucky Derby provides enough notoriety to enter the history books and turn a racehorse into a stallion with the potential for a nine-figure career.

There were about 30,000 thoroughbred racehorses born in 2012, all of which are now three years old (all racehorses celebrate their birthday on January 1st). To be eligible to race in the Derby, the owner of each of these horses has to make a stake nomination payment of $600 by January of its third year, in this case January 31, 2015. There were 438 horses who were nominated to this year's Kentucky Derby, here is the entire list.

The funnel from 30,000 foals in 2012 to 438 nominations to 20 starters is what makes the Kentucky Derby Trail special. The final step to setting the Kentucky Derby stage is the post position draw. A random ping-pong ball draw (not too far from the Saturday night lottery) assigns the post positions for each of the 20 Derby starters. You can watch the Kentucky Derby post position draw live on NBCSN on Wednesday, April 29 at 5:30 p.m. ET.

Further analysis will follow later in the week, but for now, let's touch on some key factors.

American Pharoah Hype - Churchill Downs published a press release with the subhead, "35-YEAR CLOCKER SAYS HE MIGHT BE BEST HE'S EVER SEEN." There was something about the quote that seemed fishy to me so I decided to call Gary directly and get his personal take on American Pharoah and the rest of the Derby field. Listen to the Gary Young podcast here.

Plenty of long shots - Last year, California Chrome was the race favorite with odds of exactly 5/2 while Wicked Strong was the second choice at almost 13/2. There were 16 horses with double-digit odds including the longest shot in the field at odds just under 50/1.

This year's tote board will look different and here's why: American Pharoah will go off as the favorite and based on the hype it's reasonable to expect 5/2 odds. His odds could go up if he draws the No. 1, 2, 19 or 20 post and go down if he draws the 10-15 post. However, what makes 2015 different on the tote board is we have another potential co-favorite in Dortmund, followed closely by Carpe Diem, who will likely be 7/1 or less. With all of this financial pressure on just three horses, odds will be elevated on a number of the outsiders, providing for juicy long shots that will be overlays (odds higher than they should be).

Here are the full draw and the morning line odds:

Post poistion	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	50/1
2	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8/1
3	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	12/1
4	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	30/1
5	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	30/1
6	MubTaaqhij	Christophe Soumillion	Mike de Kock	20/1
7	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	John Terranova II	30/1
8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	3/1
9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	30/1
10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12/1
11	Stanford	Florent Geroux	Todd Pletcher	30/1
12	International Star	Miguel Mena	Mike Maker	20/1
13	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	30/1
14	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	50/1
15	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	15/1
16	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50/1
17	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50/1
18	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	5/2
19	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	15/1
20	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	30/1

Dan Zucker is a co-founder of Predicteform.com (and PredictionMachine.com), a horse racing data analytics company that focuses on how horses are progressing or regressing coming into a race. Zucker is a thoroughbred owner and partner and has campaigned stakes runners - Quiet Meadow, Street Life and Pianist and his current pride and joy, Catch My Drift.

Read more about how Predicteform.com works here.