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Forecasting the onset of genocide and politicide: Annual out-of-sample forecasts on a global dataset, 1988-2003 12 Jul 2013 | 04:02 pm
We present what is, to the best of our knowledge, the first published set of annual out-of-sample forecasts of genocide and politicide based on a global dataset. Our goal is to produce a prototype for...
Who killed in Rwanda's genocide? Micro-space, social influence and individual participation in intergroup violence 12 Jul 2013 | 04:02 pm
In episodes of intergroup violence, which group members participate and which do not? Although such violence is frequently framed as occurring between distinct ethnic, racial or sectarian groups, it i...
Me, myself, and allies: Understanding the external sources of power 12 Jul 2013 | 04:02 pm
As far back as Thucydides, scholars have hypothesized that power affects the onset of conflict. Despite its importance, power remains a difficult concept to measure, and scholars have primarily relied...
Regime type, issues of contention, and economic sanctions: Re-evaluating the economic peace between democracies 12 Jul 2013 | 04:02 pm
Past studies have applied insights from the democratic peace to show that democracies are also less likely to sanction one another compared to other regime types. More recent work challenges this find...
Voters versus terrorists: Analyzing the effect of terrorist events on voter turnout 12 Jul 2013 | 04:02 pm
Scholars and policymakers commonly assume terrorism is intended to affect a broader audience beyond the physically targeted victims. Informed by scholarship regarding the effects of heuristics and emo...
Armed Conflicts, 1946-2012 12 Jul 2013 | 04:02 pm
In 2012, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) recorded 32 armed conflicts with a minimum of 25 battle-related deaths. This is a significant decrease from the 37 recorded in 2011. Overall, the 2000...
Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset 12 Jul 2013 | 04:02 pm
This article presents the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (UCDP GED). The UCDP GED is an event dataset that disaggregates three types of organized violence (state-based conflict, non-state conflict, ...
